Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München preview and prediction
The match
Borussia Dortmund host Bayern München in the Super Cup on Saturday 22 August, with kick-off at 19:30 (WAT).
Form guide
Borussia Dortmund's last 5: DWWLL Most recently they drew with AS Roma 2–2 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Bayern München's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat 1. FC Heidenheim 4–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 1.2 for Borussia Dortmund and 2.4 for Bayern München. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score in 65% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Borussia Dortmund 15%, draw 21%, Bayern München 64%.
Safer route: Bayern München or draw (85%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (65%) at 1.40.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Borussia Dortmund 1–2 Bayern München. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Borussia Dortmund15%fair 6.65 · @4.65
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @4.20
Bayern München64%fair 1.57 · @1.61
3.59Expected goals
1.16Borussia Dortmund xG
2.42Bayern München xG
65%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
0–28%
1–18%
1–38%
0–17%
0–37%
From our goals model: Borussia Dortmund 1.2 – 2.4 Bayern München expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bayern München to win✓
64%
1.57
1.61
Double chance
Bayern München or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.54
1.40
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.11
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.98
1.90
Half-time result
Bayern München ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bayern München / FT Bayern München✓
43%
2.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
9%
10.57
–
Form
Borussia Dortmund – last 6
DWWLLW
15 Aug
vs AS Roma
2–2
D
9 Aug
@ Arsenal
3–2
W
1 Aug
@ FC Tokyo
1–0
W
29 Jul
@ Cerezo Osaka
0–1
L
25 Jul
@ Fortuna Düsseldorf
1–2
L
18 Jul
@ Rot-weiss Oberhausen
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Bayern München – last 6
WWWWLD
18 Aug
@ 1. FC Heidenheim
4–2
W
15 Aug
vs RB Leipzig
3–1
W
7 Aug
vs Aston Villa
2–1
W
4 Aug
@ Jeju United FC
2–1
W
25 Jul
@ SV Wehen
1–2
L
6 May
vs Paris Saint Germain
1–1
D
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern München.
What is the prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München?
On our numbers Borussia Dortmund have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Bayern München 64%.
How many goals will there be in Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München?
Our predicted score is Borussia Dortmund 1–2 Bayern München, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München?
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München (Super Cup) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
