Marsaxlokk vs Zabbar St. Patrick prediction & analysis
80%
Footrivo pick
Marsaxlokk or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Marsaxlokk to win @ 1.80 – our chance 59% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMarsaxlokk to win ✓59% · @1.80
Double chanceMarsaxlokk or draw ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · fair 1.99
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.76
Marsaxlokk vs Zabbar St. Patrick preview and prediction
The match
Marsaxlokk host Zabbar St. Patrick in the Premier League on Saturday 10 October, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT). Marsaxlokk are 2nd with 21 points from 12 games, while Zabbar St. Patrick sit 8th on 15 points.
Form guide
Marsaxlokk's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Hamrun Spartans 1–4 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Zabbar St. Patrick's last 5: LDLDW Most recently they lost to Birkirkara 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Marsaxlokk arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.8 for Marsaxlokk and 0.9 for Zabbar St. Patrick. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Marsaxlokk 59%, draw 21%, Zabbar St. Patrick 20%.
Safer route: Marsaxlokk or draw (80%) at 1.22.
Value angle: Marsaxlokk to win at 1.80 – 59% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Marsaxlokk or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Marsaxlokk 1–0 Zabbar St. Patrick. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Marsaxlokk59%fair 1.69 · @1.80
Draw21%fair 4.78 · @3.50
Zabbar St. Patrick20%fair 5.06 · @3.70
2.78Expected goals
1.84Marsaxlokk xG
0.94Zabbar St. Patrick xG
50%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
3–06%
0–06%
From our goals model: Marsaxlokk 1.8 – 0.9 Zabbar St. Patrick expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marsaxlokk to win✓
59%
1.69
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Marsaxlokk or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
–
Half-time result
Marsaxlokk ahead at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marsaxlokk / FT Marsaxlokk✓
37%
2.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.76
–
Form
Marsaxlokk – last 6
LWDWWD
18 Sep
@ Hamrun Spartans
1–4
L
12 Sep
@ Floriana
5–2
W
5 Sep
vs Mosta
1–1
D
28 Aug
@ Valletta FC
2–1
W
21 Aug
vs Hibernians
1–0
W
14 Aug
@ Balzan FC
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Zabbar St. Patrick – last 6
LDLDWL
18 Sep
vs Birkirkara
0–2
L
14 Sep
@ Gzira United
0–0
D
6 Sep
vs Hamrun Spartans
1–2
L
28 Aug
@ Hibernians
1–1
D
22 Aug
vs Birzebbuga
1–0
W
16 Aug
@ Valletta FC
2–4
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marsaxlokk and Zabbar St. Patrick.
What is the prediction for Marsaxlokk vs Zabbar St. Patrick?
Our pick is Marsaxlokk or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Marsaxlokk vs Zabbar St. Patrick?
On our numbers Marsaxlokk have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Zabbar St. Patrick 20%.
How many goals will there be in Marsaxlokk vs Zabbar St. Patrick?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marsaxlokk vs Zabbar St. Patrick?
Our predicted score is Marsaxlokk 1–0 Zabbar St. Patrick, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Marsaxlokk vs Zabbar St. Patrick?
Marsaxlokk vs Zabbar St. Patrick (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
