Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Marsaxlokk to win @ 1.83 – our chance 58% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMarsaxlokk to win ✗58% · @1.83
Double chanceMarsaxlokk or draw ✓80% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.38
Marsaxlokk vs Mosta preview and prediction
The match
Mosta travel to face Marsaxlokk in the Premier League on Saturday 5 September (19:30 WAT). Marsaxlokk are 2nd with 21 points from 12 games, while Mosta sit 9th on 15 points.
Form guide
Marsaxlokk's last 5: WWDLL Most recently they beat Valletta FC 2–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Mosta's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Birkirkara 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.4 for Marsaxlokk and 0.6 for Mosta. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Marsaxlokk 58%, draw 21%, Mosta 20%.
Safer route: Marsaxlokk or draw (80%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: no (55%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Marsaxlokk to win at 1.83 – 58% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Marsaxlokk or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Marsaxlokk 1–0 Mosta. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Marsaxlokk58%fair 1.72 · @1.83
Draw21%fair 4.65 · @3.10
Mosta20%fair 4.93 · @4.00
2.00Expected goals
1.37Marsaxlokk xG
0.63Mosta xG
45%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
0–014%
2–013%
1–112%
0–18%
2–18%
From our goals model: Marsaxlokk 1.4 – 0.6 Mosta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marsaxlokk to win✗
58%
1.72
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Marsaxlokk or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marsaxlokk / FT Marsaxlokk✗
33%
3.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.38
–
Form
Marsaxlokk – last 6
WWDLLW
28 Aug
@ Valletta FC
2–1
W
21 Aug
vs Hibernians
1–0
W
14 Aug
@ Balzan FC
1–1
D
16 Jul
@ Pyunik Yerevan
0–1
L
9 Jul
vs Pyunik Yerevan
0–3
L
19 Apr
vs Gzira United
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Mosta – last 6
WWWWDL
30 Aug
vs Birkirkara
1–0
W
23 Aug
vs Balzan FC
2–1
W
17 Aug
@ Hamrun Spartans
2–0
W
10 May
@ Naxxar Lions
1–0
W
30 Apr
@ Birkirkara
1–1
D
24 Apr
@ Hibernians
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marsaxlokk and Mosta.
Our pick is Marsaxlokk or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Marsaxlokk vs Mosta?
On our numbers Marsaxlokk have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Mosta 20%.
How many goals will there be in Marsaxlokk vs Mosta?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marsaxlokk vs Mosta?
Our predicted score is Marsaxlokk 1–0 Mosta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Marsaxlokk vs Mosta?
Marsaxlokk vs Mosta (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
