Value bet: Hamrun Spartans to win @ 2.15 – our chance 53% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultHamrun Spartans to win ✗53% · @2.15
Double chanceHamrun Spartans or draw ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.74
Hamrun Spartans vs Floriana preview and prediction
The match
Floriana travel to Tony Bezzina Stadium in the Premier League on Saturday 29 August (17:30 WAT) to face Hamrun Spartans. Hamrun Spartans are 5th with 18 points from 12 games, while Floriana sit 6th on 16 points. Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Hamrun Spartans's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to Birkirkara 0–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Floriana's last 5: WWDDL Most recently they beat Sliema Wanderers 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Floriana arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 1 March 2026, finished Hamrun Spartans 1–1 Floriana.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.3 for Hamrun Spartans and 0.7 for Floriana. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely.
Safer route: Hamrun Spartans or draw (77%) at 1.30.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Hamrun Spartans to win at 2.15 – 53% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Hamrun Spartans or draw – a 77% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Hamrun Spartans 1–0 Floriana. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Hamrun Spartans53%fair 1.88 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @2.90
Floriana23%fair 4.28 · @3.30
2.00Expected goals
1.29Hamrun Spartans xG
0.71Floriana xG
51%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
0–014%
1–112%
2–011%
0–110%
2–18%
From our goals model: Hamrun Spartans 1.3 – 0.7 Floriana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Hamrun Spartans vs Floriana?
Our pick is Hamrun Spartans or draw with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Hamrun Spartans vs Floriana?
On our numbers Hamrun Spartans have a 53% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Floriana 23%.
How many goals will there be in Hamrun Spartans vs Floriana?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Hamrun Spartans vs Floriana?
Our predicted score is Hamrun Spartans 1–0 Floriana, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Hamrun Spartans vs Floriana?
Hamrun Spartans vs Floriana (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Tony Bezzina Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
