Value bet: Balzan FC to win @ 3.50 – our chance 51% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +77%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBalzan FC to win ✗51% · @3.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · fair 1.26
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.18
Mosta vs Balzan FC preview and prediction
The match
Balzan FC travel to Centenary Stadium in the Premier League on Sunday 23 August (20:00 WAT) to face Mosta. Mosta are 9th with 15 points from 12 games, while Balzan FC sit 10th on 14 points. Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Mosta's last 5: WWDLD Most recently they beat Hamrun Spartans 2–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Balzan FC's last 5: DWWWL Most recently they drew with Marsaxlokk 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 0.9 for Mosta and 1.4 for Balzan FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 45%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mosta 28%, draw 21%, Balzan FC 51%.
Value angle: Balzan FC to win at 3.50 – 51% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 56% chance at odds of 1.80. Predicted score: Mosta 0–1 Balzan FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mosta28%fair 3.51 · @1.83
Draw21%fair 4.79 · @3.50
Balzan FC51%fair 1.98 · @3.50
2.28Expected goals
0.92Mosta xG
1.37Balzan FC xG
45%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–010%
0–210%
1–09%
1–29%
From our goals model: Mosta 0.9 – 1.4 Balzan FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Balzan FC to win✗
51%
1.98
3.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Balzan FC / FT Balzan FC✗
28%
3.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.18
–
Form
Mosta – last 6
WWDLDW
17 Aug
@ Hamrun Spartans
2–0
W
10 May
@ Naxxar Lions
1–0
W
30 Apr
@ Birkirkara
1–1
D
24 Apr
@ Hibernians
0–2
L
19 Apr
vs Sliema Wanderers
2–2
D
15 Apr
vs Zabbar St. Patrick
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Balzan FC – last 6
DWWWLW
14 Aug
vs Marsaxlokk
1–1
D
19 Apr
vs Melita
2–0
W
6 Apr
@ Sirens
1–0
W
10 Mar
@ Fgura United
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs St. Andrews
1–4
L
15 Feb
@ Marsa
4–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mosta and Balzan FC.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Mosta vs Balzan FC?
On our numbers Mosta have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Balzan FC 51%.
How many goals will there be in Mosta vs Balzan FC?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mosta vs Balzan FC?
Our predicted score is Mosta 0–1 Balzan FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Mosta vs Balzan FC?
Mosta vs Balzan FC (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Centenary Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
