Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
2
Value bet: Comerciantes to win @ 3.00 – our chance 40% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultComerciantes to win ✗40% · @3.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.62
Santos vs Comerciantes preview and prediction
The match
Santos host Comerciantes in the Segunda División on Saturday 1 August, with kick-off at 21:15 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal de Nasca. Santos are 6th with 21 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Comerciantes sit 2nd on 26 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Santos's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to Ayacucho FC 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Comerciantes's last 5: WDLDW Most recently they beat Alianza Universidad 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.0 for Santos and 1.1 for Comerciantes. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Value angle: Comerciantes to win at 3.00 – 40% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 62% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Santos 1–1 Comerciantes. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santos35%fair 2.83 · @2.25
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.00
Comerciantes40%fair 2.49 · @3.00
2.14Expected goals
1.02Santos xG
1.12Comerciantes xG
44%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–012%
0–012%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Santos 1.0 – 1.1 Comerciantes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Comerciantes to win✗
40%
2.49
3.00 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.77
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Comerciantes / FT Comerciantes✗
21%
4.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.62
–
Form
Santos – last 6
LWLWLW
26 Jul
@ Ayacucho FC
0–2
L
19 Jul
vs Deportivo Binacional
3–1
W
28 Jun
@ Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0–3
L
21 Jun
vs Ayacucho FC
2–1
W
29 May
vs Minas
0–1
L
4 May
@ Alianza Universidad
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Comerciantes – last 6
WDLDWD
24 Jul
vs Alianza Universidad
1–0
W
18 Jul
@ Sport Huancayo 2
1–1
D
11 Jul
@ Sport Boys
0–1
L
27 Jun
vs Estudiantil CNI
0–0
D
20 Jun
@ Union Comercio
1–0
W
13 Jun
vs Sporting Cristal
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santos and Comerciantes.
What is the prediction for Santos vs Comerciantes?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Santos vs Comerciantes?
On our numbers Santos have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Comerciantes 40%.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs Comerciantes?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santos vs Comerciantes?
Our predicted score is Santos 1–1 Comerciantes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Santos vs Comerciantes?
Santos vs Comerciantes (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 1 August 2026 at 21:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Nasca.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Academia Cantolao1
Cesar Vallejo1