Persha Liga · Ukraine · Kolos StadiumYarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets prediction & analysis
Yarud Mariupol' or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.21 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Yarud Mariupol' 1.6 – 0.8 Inhulets expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Yarud Mariupol' hold the edge on home soil with a 57% chance of winning, against 20% for Inhulets.
Yarud Mariupol' have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.8 per game. Inhulets have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 0.8 scored and 0.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.6 for Yarud Mariupol', 0.8 for Inhulets). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 1–1 (12%), 2–0 (12%).
In their last 1 meeting, Yarud Mariupol' have won 0, Inhulets have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Yarud Mariupol' or draw at a 80% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.21 is close to our fair price of 1.26.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Yarud Mariupol' to win ✓ | 57% | 1.75 | 1.84 ▲ |
| Double chance | Yarud Mariupol' or draw ✓ | 80% | 1.26 | 1.21 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 54% | 1.84 | 1.92 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.46 | 1.40 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 57% | 1.76 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 77% | 1.29 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.25 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Yarud Mariupol' / FT Yarud Mariupol' ✓ | 34% | 2.96 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 15% | 6.79 | – |
Form
Yarud Mariupol' – last 6
| 11 Oct | @ UCSA | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Oct | vs Nyva Ternopil | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Sep | @ Oleksandria | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Polissya II | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ Probiy Horodenka | 2–0 | W |
| 9 Sep | vs Zorya Luhansk | 0–2 | L |
Inhulets – last 6
| 10 Oct | vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | @ Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Prykarpattia | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Metal Kharkiv | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sep | @ SK Poltava | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | @ UCSA | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 19 Apr 2026 | Yarud Mariupol' v Inhulets | 1–1 |
Persha Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 15 | +10 | 31 |
| 2 |  Yarud Mariupol' | 15 | +9 | 28 |
| 3 |  Oleksandria | 15 | +9 | 27 |
| 4 |  Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 14 | +6 | 26 |
| 5 |  Kulykiv | 15 | +11 | 25 |
| 6 |  SK Poltava | 15 | +11 | 24 |
| 7 |  Nyva Ternopil | 15 | +6 | 22 |
| 8 |  Metal Kharkiv | 15 | +3 | 21 |
| 9 |  Lokomotiv Kyiv | 15 | 0 | 20 |
| 10 |  Inhulets | 14 | -4 | 18 |
| 11 |  Prykarpattia | 15 | -5 | 17 |
| 12 |  UCSA | 15 | -5 | 15 |
| 13 |  Kolos Kovalivka II | 14 | -14 | 13 |
| 14 |  Probiy Horodenka | 15 | -20 | 11 |
| 15 |  Chernihiv | 12 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 |  Polissya II | 15 | -11 | 9 |
More Persha Liga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets?
Our pick is Yarud Mariupol' or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.21.
Who will win Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets?
On our numbers Yarud Mariupol' have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Inhulets 20%.
How many goals will there be in Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets?
Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets (Persha Liga) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Kolos Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.