Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.67Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultYarud Mariupol' to win ✓62% · @1.67
Double chanceYarud Mariupol' or draw ✓82% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.05
UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' preview and prediction
The match
Yarud Mariupol' travel to face UCSA in the Persha Liga on Sunday 11 October (10:00 WAT). UCSA are 12th with 15 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Yarud Mariupol' sit 2nd on 28 points (in the top four). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
UCSA's last 5: LDLWL Most recently they lost to Ahrobiznes Volochysk 2–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Yarud Mariupol''s last 5: DDWWL Most recently they drew with Nyva Ternopil 0–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Yarud Mariupol' arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 0.9 for UCSA and 1.8 for Yarud Mariupol'. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 50%.
Safer route: Yarud Mariupol' or draw (82%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.83.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Yarud Mariupol' to win – a 62% chance at odds of 1.67, above our fair price of 1.62, so there is value in it. Predicted score: UCSA 0–1 Yarud Mariupol'. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
UCSA18%fair 5.69 · @4.40
Draw21%fair 4.82 · @3.30
Yarud Mariupol'62%fair 1.62 · @1.67
2.70Expected goals
0.85UCSA xG
1.85Yarud Mariupol' xG
50%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–112%
0–211%
1–111%
1–210%
0–37%
0–07%
From our goals model: UCSA 0.9 – 1.8 Yarud Mariupol' expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Yarud Mariupol' to win✓
62%
1.62
1.67
Double chance
Yarud Mariupol' or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Half-time result
Yarud Mariupol' ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Yarud Mariupol' / FT Yarud Mariupol'✗
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.05
–
Form
UCSA – last 6
LDLWLL
4 Oct
@ Ahrobiznes Volochysk
2–3
L
26 Sep
vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0–0
D
20 Sep
@ Prykarpattia
0–1
L
11 Sep
vs Chernihiv
3–2
W
5 Sep
@ Metal Kharkiv
1–3
L
29 Aug
vs Inhulets
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Yarud Mariupol' – last 6
DDWWLD
5 Oct
vs Nyva Ternopil
0–0
D
27 Sep
@ Oleksandria
1–1
D
20 Sep
vs Polissya II
2–1
W
13 Sep
@ Probiy Horodenka
2–0
W
9 Sep
vs Zorya Luhansk
0–2
L
5 Sep
vs Kulykiv
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UCSA and Yarud Mariupol'.
What is the prediction for UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol'?
Our pick is Yarud Mariupol' to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol'?
On our numbers UCSA have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Yarud Mariupol' 62%.
How many goals will there be in UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol'?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol'?
Our predicted score is UCSA 0–1 Yarud Mariupol', the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol'?
UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' (Persha Liga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 10:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
