Oleksandria vs Yarud Mariupol' prediction & analysis
64%
Footrivo pick
Oleksandria to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.60 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.60Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultOleksandria to win ✗64% · @1.60
Double chanceOleksandria or draw ✓89% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.44
Oleksandria vs Yarud Mariupol' preview and prediction
The match
The Persha Liga sees Oleksandria take on Yarud Mariupol' on Sunday 27 September, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT). Oleksandria are 3rd with 27 points from 15 games (in the top four), while Yarud Mariupol' sit 2nd on 28 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Oleksandria's last 5: LWDDW Most recently they lost to Ahrobiznes Volochysk 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Yarud Mariupol''s last 5: WWLDW Most recently they beat Polissya II 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Oleksandria and 0.6 for Yarud Mariupol'. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 44%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Oleksandria to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.60, above our fair price of 1.56, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Oleksandria 1–0 Yarud Mariupol'. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Oleksandria64%fair 1.56 · @1.60
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.50
Yarud Mariupol'11%fair 9.47 · @5.00
2.47Expected goals
1.83Oleksandria xG
0.64Yarud Mariupol' xG
44%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–08%
From our goals model: Oleksandria 1.8 – 0.6 Yarud Mariupol' expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Oleksandria to win✗
64%
1.56
1.60
Double chance
Oleksandria or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.11
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.80
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Half-time result
Oleksandria ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Oleksandria / FT Oleksandria✗
42%
2.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.44
–
Form
Oleksandria – last 6
LWDDWW
20 Sep
@ Ahrobiznes Volochysk
0–1
L
14 Sep
vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1–0
W
9 Sep
@ Probiy Horodenka
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Prykarpattia
0–0
D
29 Aug
vs Chernihiv
1–0
W
21 Aug
@ Bratslav Vinnytsia
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Yarud Mariupol' – last 6
WWLDWW
20 Sep
vs Polissya II
2–1
W
13 Sep
@ Probiy Horodenka
2–0
W
9 Sep
vs Zorya Luhansk
0–2
L
5 Sep
vs Kulykiv
1–1
D
28 Aug
@ Lokomotiv Kyiv
3–1
W
20 Aug
@ Dinaz Vyshhorod
6–0
W
2.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Oleksandria and Yarud Mariupol'.
What is the prediction for Oleksandria vs Yarud Mariupol'?
Our pick is Oleksandria to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Oleksandria vs Yarud Mariupol'?
On our numbers Oleksandria have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Yarud Mariupol' 11%.
How many goals will there be in Oleksandria vs Yarud Mariupol'?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Oleksandria vs Yarud Mariupol'?
Our predicted score is Oleksandria 1–0 Yarud Mariupol', the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Oleksandria vs Yarud Mariupol'?
Oleksandria vs Yarud Mariupol' (Persha Liga) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
