Liga De Expansión MX · MexicoPiratas vs Tapatío prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Piratas 2.3 – 1.0 Tapatío expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Piratas are clear favourites at home with a 67% chance of winning, against 15% for Tapatío.
Piratas have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 2.7 and conceding 1.3 per game. Tapatío have 6 points from their last 6 (2W 0D 4L), averaging 1.8 scored and 2.2 conceded. Piratas come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.3 goals (2.3 for Piratas, 1.0 for Tapatío). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 61% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.70 is better than our fair price of 1.65, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Piratas to win ✗ | 67% | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| Double chance | Piratas or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.06 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 61% | 1.65 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.20 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 63% | 1.59 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.69 | – |
| Half-time result | Piratas ahead at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.05 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Piratas / FT Piratas ✗ | 44% | 2.29 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 10% | 10.01 | – |
Form
Piratas – last 6
| 25 Oct | @ Dorados | 5–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Tepatitlán | 3–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | @ Tlaxcala | 2–4 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 4–0 | W |
| 25 Sep | @ Mineros de Zacatecas | 0–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Venados FC | 2–1 | W |
Tapatío – last 6
| 26 Oct | vs Monarcas | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | @ Durango | 0–5 | L |
| 14 Oct | vs Tepatitlán | 4–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs CA La Paz | 2–4 | L |
| 4 Oct | @ Cancún | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Sep | vs Tlaxcala | 4–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Piratas and Tapatío.
Liga De Expansión MX table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CA La Paz | 15 | +18 | 30 |
| 2 |  Leones Negros UDG | 15 | +14 | 30 |
| 3 |  Monarcas | 15 | +7 | 26 |
| 4 |  Piratas | 15 | +12 | 25 |
| 5 |  Cancún | 15 | +10 | 25 |
| 6 |  Venados FC | 15 | +6 | 25 |
| 7 |  Durango | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 |  Tlaxcala | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 15 | -10 | 22 |
| 10 |  Mineros de Zacatecas | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 11 |  Tapatío | 15 | -3 | 18 |
| 12 |  Correcaminos Uat | 15 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 |  Dorados | 15 | -9 | 16 |
| 14 |  CDS Tampico Madero | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 15 |  Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 15 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 |  Tepatitlán | 15 | -33 | 7 |
More Liga De Expansión MX predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Piratas vs Tapatío?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Piratas vs Tapatío?
On our numbers Piratas have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Tapatío 15%.
How many goals will there be in Piratas vs Tapatío?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
When is Piratas vs Tapatío?
Piratas vs Tapatío (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.