Liga De Expansión MX · Mexico · Estadio JaliscoLeones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán prediction & analysis
Leones Negros UDG to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.46 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Leones Negros UDG 2.5 – 1.1 Tepatitlán expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Leones Negros UDG are clear favourites at home with a 68% chance of winning, against 15% for Tepatitlán.
Leones Negros UDG have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.5 per game. Tepatitlán have 4 points from their last 6 (1W 1D 4L), averaging 0.8 scored and 2.3 conceded. Leones Negros UDG come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.6 goals (2.5 for Leones Negros UDG, 1.1 for Tepatitlán). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (9%), 3–1 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, Leones Negros UDG have won 0, Tepatitlán have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 0.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Leones Negros UDG to win at a 68% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.46.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Leones Negros UDG to win ✓ | 68% | 1.46 | 1.20 |
| Double chance | Leones Negros UDG or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.17 | 1.05 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 88% | 1.14 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.43 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.95 | – |
| Half-time result | Leones Negros UDG ahead at half-time ✓ | 51% | 1.95 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Leones Negros UDG / FT Leones Negros UDG ✓ | 46% | 2.18 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 10.68 | – |
Form
Leones Negros UDG – last 6
| 25 Oct | @ Mineros de Zacatecas | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | @ Venados FC | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Oct | vs Dorados | 6–3 | W |
| 26 Sep | @ Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Monarcas | 0–2 | L |
Tepatitlán – last 6
| 24 Oct | vs Cancún | 0–4 | L |
| 18 Oct | @ Piratas | 0–3 | L |
| 14 Oct | @ Tapatío | 1–4 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Monarcas | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs CDS Tampico Madero | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Mineros de Zacatecas | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 15 Feb 2026 | Leones Negros UDG v Tepatitlán | 0–0 |
Liga De Expansión MX table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CA La Paz | 15 | +18 | 30 |
| 2 |  Leones Negros UDG | 15 | +14 | 30 |
| 3 |  Monarcas | 15 | +7 | 26 |
| 4 |  Piratas | 15 | +12 | 25 |
| 5 |  Cancún | 15 | +10 | 25 |
| 6 |  Venados FC | 15 | +6 | 25 |
| 7 |  Durango | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 |  Tlaxcala | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 15 | -10 | 22 |
| 10 |  Mineros de Zacatecas | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 11 |  Tapatío | 15 | -3 | 18 |
| 12 |  Correcaminos Uat | 15 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 |  Dorados | 15 | -9 | 16 |
| 14 |  CDS Tampico Madero | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 15 |  Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 15 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 |  Tepatitlán | 15 | -33 | 7 |
More Liga De Expansión MX predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán?
Our pick is Leones Negros UDG to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán?
On our numbers Leones Negros UDG have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Tepatitlán 15%.
How many goals will there be in Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán?
Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.