Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Piratas to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.25Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPiratas to win ✓66% · @1.25
Double chancePiratas or draw ✓85% · @1.05
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.29
Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca preview and prediction
The match
The Liga De Expansión MX sees Piratas take on Alebrijes de Oaxaca on Sunday 4 October, kicking off at 02:00 (WAT). Piratas are 4th with 25 points from 15 games (in the top four), while Alebrijes de Oaxaca sit 9th on 22 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Piratas's last 5: LWDWD Most recently they lost to Mineros de Zacatecas 0–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca's last 5: LLWLD Most recently they lost to CA La Paz 1–3 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Piratas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.8 for Piratas and 0.6 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 48%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Piratas 66%, draw 19%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 15%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Piratas to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Piratas 1–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Piratas66%fair 1.51 · @1.25
Draw19%fair 5.35 · @5.00
Alebrijes de Oaxaca15%fair 6.56 · @10.00
2.40Expected goals
1.75Piratas xG
0.65Alebrijes de Oaxaca xG
48%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
0–09%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Piratas 1.8 – 0.6 Alebrijes de Oaxaca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Piratas to win✓
66%
1.51
1.25
Double chance
Piratas or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.05
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
–
Half-time result
Piratas ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Piratas / FT Piratas✓
40%
2.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.29
–
Form
Piratas – last 6
LWDWDL
25 Sep
@ Mineros de Zacatecas
0–3
L
19 Sep
vs Venados FC
2–1
W
11 Sep
@ Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Correcaminos Uat
4–1
W
30 Aug
@ Leones Negros UDG
1–1
D
23 Aug
vs Cancún
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Alebrijes de Oaxaca – last 6
LLWLDL
25 Sep
vs CA La Paz
1–3
L
20 Sep
@ Cancún
0–3
L
11 Sep
vs Durango
1–0
W
6 Sep
@ Monarcas
1–4
L
28 Aug
vs Tapatío
1–1
D
23 Aug
@ CDS Tampico Madero
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Piratas and Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
What is the prediction for Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our pick is Piratas to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
On our numbers Piratas have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Alebrijes de Oaxaca 15%.
How many goals will there be in Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our predicted score is Piratas 1–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
