Liga De Expansión MX · Mexico · Estadio JaliscoLeones Negros UDG vs Dorados prediction & analysis
Leones Negros UDG to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Leones Negros UDG 2.3 – 1.0 Dorados expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Leones Negros UDG are clear favourites at home with a 67% chance of winning, against 14% for Dorados.
Leones Negros UDG have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.3 per game. Dorados have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 3.3 goals (2.3 for Leones Negros UDG, 1.0 for Dorados). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Leones Negros UDG have won 0, Dorados have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Leones Negros UDG to win at a 67% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.50 is close to our fair price of 1.50.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Leones Negros UDG to win ✓ | 67% | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Double chance | Leones Negros UDG or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.17 | 1.15 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 57% | 1.74 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.20 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 59% | 1.69 | – |
| Half-time result | Leones Negros UDG ahead at half-time ✓ | 49% | 2.03 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Leones Negros UDG / FT Leones Negros UDG ✓ | 44% | 2.27 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 10% | 9.89 | – |
Form
Leones Negros UDG – last 6
| 26 Sep | @ Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Monarcas | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs CA La Paz | 2–2 | D |
| 7 Sep | @ Tapatío | 3–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | vs Piratas | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | @ Durango | 2–1 | W |
Dorados – last 6
| 27 Sep | vs Durango | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | @ CDS Tampico Madero | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Sep | vs Cancún | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Tapatío | 3–1 | W |
| 4 Sep | @ Tepatitlán | 4–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Monarcas | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 15 Mar 2026 | Dorados v Leones Negros UDG | 1–1 |
Liga De Expansión MX table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CA La Paz | 15 | +18 | 30 |
| 2 |  Leones Negros UDG | 15 | +14 | 30 |
| 3 |  Monarcas | 15 | +7 | 26 |
| 4 |  Piratas | 15 | +12 | 25 |
| 5 |  Cancún | 15 | +10 | 25 |
| 6 |  Venados FC | 15 | +6 | 25 |
| 7 |  Durango | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 |  Tlaxcala | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 15 | -10 | 22 |
| 10 |  Mineros de Zacatecas | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 11 |  Tapatío | 15 | -3 | 18 |
| 12 |  Correcaminos Uat | 15 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 |  Dorados | 15 | -9 | 16 |
| 14 |  CDS Tampico Madero | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 15 |  Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 15 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 |  Tepatitlán | 15 | -33 | 7 |
More Liga De Expansión MX predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados?
Our pick is Leones Negros UDG to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados?
On our numbers Leones Negros UDG have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Dorados 14%.
How many goals will there be in Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados?
Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.