Liga De Expansión MX · MexicoPiratas vs Venados FC prediction & analysis
Piratas to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Piratas 2.4 – 1.0 Venados FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Piratas are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 12% for Venados FC.
Piratas have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.0 per game. Venados FC have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 2.8 scored and 2.7 conceded.
We expect around 3.4 goals (2.4 for Piratas, 1.0 for Venados FC). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (10%), 1–1 (8%).
Our pick is Piratas to win at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.55 is close to our fair price of 1.53.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Piratas to win ✓ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.55 |
| Double chance | Piratas or draw ✓ | 88% | 1.13 | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.52 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.78 | – |
| Half-time result | Piratas ahead at half-time ✓ | 50% | 1.99 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Piratas / FT Piratas ✓ | 45% | 2.22 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✓ | 10% | 10.37 | – |
Form
Piratas – last 6
| 11 Sep | @ Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Correcaminos Uat | 4–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | @ Leones Negros UDG | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | vs Cancún | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Aug | @ CA La Paz | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Aug | @ Durango | 3–0 | W |
Venados FC – last 6
| 13 Sep | vs Tepatitlán | 5–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ CDS Tampico Madero | 3–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | @ Tlaxcala | 1–3 | L |
| 21 Aug | vs Dorados | 4–2 | W |
| 15 Aug | @ Mineros de Zacatecas | 1–5 | L |
| 9 Aug | vs Tapatío | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Piratas and Venados FC.
Liga De Expansión MX table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CA La Paz | 15 | +18 | 30 |
| 2 |  Leones Negros UDG | 15 | +14 | 30 |
| 3 |  Monarcas | 15 | +7 | 26 |
| 4 |  Piratas | 15 | +12 | 25 |
| 5 |  Cancún | 15 | +10 | 25 |
| 6 |  Venados FC | 15 | +6 | 25 |
| 7 |  Durango | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 |  Tlaxcala | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 15 | -10 | 22 |
| 10 |  Mineros de Zacatecas | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 11 |  Tapatío | 15 | -3 | 18 |
| 12 |  Correcaminos Uat | 15 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 |  Dorados | 15 | -9 | 16 |
| 14 |  CDS Tampico Madero | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 15 |  Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 15 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 |  Tepatitlán | 15 | -33 | 7 |
More Liga De Expansión MX predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Piratas vs Venados FC?
Our pick is Piratas to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Piratas vs Venados FC?
On our numbers Piratas have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Venados FC 12%.
How many goals will there be in Piratas vs Venados FC?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Piratas vs Venados FC?
Piratas vs Venados FC (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.