Leones Negros UDG vs Piratas preview and prediction
The match
Piratas travel to Estadio Jalisco in the Liga De Expansión MX on Sunday 30 August (19:00 WAT) to face Leones Negros UDG. Leones Negros UDG are 2nd with 30 points from 15 games (in the top four), while Piratas sit 4th on 25 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Leones Negros UDG's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Durango 2–1 away. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Piratas's last 5: LLWWD Most recently they lost to Cancún 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Leones Negros UDG arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Leones Negros UDG and 1.3 for Piratas. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 60%.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Leones Negros UDG 1–1 Piratas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leones Negros UDG40%fair 2.51 · @2.60
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.30
Piratas36%fair 2.76 · @2.60
2.58Expected goals
1.33Leones Negros UDG xG
1.25Piratas xG
60%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Leones Negros UDG 1.3 – 1.3 Piratas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leones Negros UDG to win✗
40%
2.51
2.60
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leones Negros UDG / FT Leones Negros UDG✗
22%
4.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.95
–
Form
Leones Negros UDG – last 6
WWLWWL
23 Aug
@ Durango
2–1
W
16 Aug
vs CDS Tampico Madero
4–0
W
7 Aug
vs Correcaminos Uat
1–3
L
2 Aug
@ Cancún
2–0
W
25 Jul
@ Tlaxcala
4–2
W
12 Apr
@ Venados FC
1–2
L
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Piratas – last 5
LLWWD
23 Aug
vs Cancún
0–1
L
15 Aug
@ CA La Paz
0–2
L
8 Aug
@ Durango
3–0
W
2 Aug
vs Monarcas
1–0
W
26 Jul
@ CDS Tampico Madero
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
0%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones Negros UDG and Piratas.
What is the prediction for Leones Negros UDG vs Piratas?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Leones Negros UDG vs Piratas?
On our numbers Leones Negros UDG have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Piratas 36%.
How many goals will there be in Leones Negros UDG vs Piratas?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones Negros UDG vs Piratas?
Our predicted score is Leones Negros UDG 1–1 Piratas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Leones Negros UDG vs Piratas?
Leones Negros UDG vs Piratas (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
