Value bet: Venados FC to win @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVenados FC to win ✗60% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✗86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓69% · @1.44
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.02
Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG preview and prediction
The match
Leones Negros UDG travel to Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero in the Liga De Expansión MX on Sunday 11 October (00:00 WAT) to face Venados FC. Venados FC are 6th with 25 points from 15 games (in the top half), while Leones Negros UDG sit 2nd on 30 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Venados FC's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat CA La Paz 2–1 away. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Leones Negros UDG's last 5: WWLDW Most recently they beat Dorados 6–3 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 12 April 2026, finished Venados FC 2–1 Leones Negros UDG.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.1 goals: 2.5 for Venados FC and 1.6 for Leones Negros UDG. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 77% likely and both teams score in 69% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Venados FC to win at 1.85 – 60% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 69% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Venados FC 2–1 Leones Negros UDG. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Venados FC60%fair 1.67 · @1.85
Draw14%fair 7.12 · @3.75
Leones Negros UDG26%fair 3.85 · @3.25
4.09Expected goals
2.50Venados FC xG
1.59Leones Negros UDG xG
69%Both score
77%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–18%
3–17%
1–17%
2–27%
3–26%
1–25%
From our goals model: Venados FC 2.5 – 1.6 Leones Negros UDG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG?
On our numbers Venados FC have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Leones Negros UDG 26%.
How many goals will there be in Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 77% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG?
Our predicted score is Venados FC 2–1 Leones Negros UDG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.
When is Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG?
Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
