Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG prediction & analysis
65%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultTapatío to win ✗41% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.64
Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG preview and prediction
The match
The Liga De Expansión MX sees Tapatío take on Leones Negros UDG on Monday 7 September, kicking off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estadio Akron. Tapatío are 11th with 18 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Leones Negros UDG sit 2nd on 30 points (in the top four). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Tapatío's last 5: DWWLW Most recently they drew with Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Leones Negros UDG's last 5: DWWLW Most recently they drew with Piratas 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 1.7 for Tapatío and 1.6 for Leones Negros UDG. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score in 65% of our simulations.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 65% chance at odds of 1.67, above our fair price of 1.54, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Tapatío 1–1 Leones Negros UDG. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tapatío41%fair 2.41 · @2.25
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.25
Leones Negros UDG36%fair 2.81 · @2.75
3.33Expected goals
1.73Tapatío xG
1.60Leones Negros UDG xG
65%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–19%
1–28%
2–27%
1–06%
0–16%
From our goals model: Tapatío 1.7 – 1.6 Leones Negros UDG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tapatío to win✗
41%
2.41
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.54
1.67 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.74
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
37%
2.68
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tapatío / FT Tapatío✗
25%
4.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.64
–
Form
Tapatío – last 6
DWWLWD
28 Aug
@ Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1–1
D
24 Aug
vs Mineros de Zacatecas
4–2
W
15 Aug
@ Correcaminos Uat
3–2
W
9 Aug
@ Venados FC
2–3
L
2 Aug
vs CDS Tampico Madero
1–0
W
27 Jul
vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo
0–0
D
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Leones Negros UDG – last 6
DWWLWW
30 Aug
vs Piratas
1–1
D
23 Aug
@ Durango
2–1
W
16 Aug
vs CDS Tampico Madero
4–0
W
7 Aug
vs Correcaminos Uat
1–3
L
2 Aug
@ Cancún
2–0
W
25 Jul
@ Tlaxcala
4–2
W
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tapatío and Leones Negros UDG.
What is the prediction for Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG?
On our numbers Tapatío have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Leones Negros UDG 36%.
How many goals will there be in Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG?
Our predicted score is Tapatío 1–1 Leones Negros UDG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG?
Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Monday 7 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Akron.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
