Liga De Expansión MX · MexicoCancún vs CA La Paz prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.31 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Value bet: Cancún to win @ 1.93 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Cancún 1.8 – 1.0 CA La Paz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Cancún hold the edge on home soil with a 57% chance of winning, against 23% for CA La Paz.
Cancún have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (3W 0D 3L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.5 per game. CA La Paz have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.8 goals (1.8 for Cancún, 1.0 for CA La Paz). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 60%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Cancún have won 0, CA La Paz have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 76% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.31. For a bigger price, Cancún to win at 1.93 is our value angle (57% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Cancún to win ✗ | 57% | 1.76 | 1.93 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 80% | 1.26 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.67 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | 1.25 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 53% | 1.88 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.46 | 1.38 |
| Half-time result | Cancún ahead at half-time ✗ | 41% | 2.47 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Cancún / FT Cancún ✗ | 34% | 2.91 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 9.45 | – |
Form
Cancún – last 6
| 23 Aug | @ Piratas | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | vs Durango | 2–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | @ Monarcas | 1–4 | L |
| 2 Aug | vs Leones Negros UDG | 0–2 | L |
| 5 Jul | vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 0–3 | L |
| 4 Jul | vs Toluca | 1–0 | W |
CA La Paz – last 6
| 22 Aug | vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Aug | vs Piratas | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | @ Tepatitlán | 5–0 | W |
| 1 Aug | vs Durango | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Jul | @ Monarcas | 2–4 | L |
| 1 Jul | @ FC Juarez | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 15 Mar 2026 | Cancún v CA La Paz | 1–1 |
Liga De Expansión MX table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CA La Paz | 15 | +18 | 30 |
| 2 |  Leones Negros UDG | 15 | +14 | 30 |
| 3 |  Monarcas | 15 | +7 | 26 |
| 4 |  Piratas | 15 | +12 | 25 |
| 5 |  Cancún | 15 | +10 | 25 |
| 6 |  Venados FC | 15 | +6 | 25 |
| 7 |  Durango | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 |  Tlaxcala | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 15 | -10 | 22 |
| 10 |  Mineros de Zacatecas | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 11 |  Tapatío | 15 | -3 | 18 |
| 12 |  Correcaminos Uat | 15 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 |  Dorados | 15 | -9 | 16 |
| 14 |  CDS Tampico Madero | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 15 |  Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 15 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 |  Tepatitlán | 15 | -33 | 7 |
More Liga De Expansión MX predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Cancún vs CA La Paz?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Cancún vs CA La Paz?
On our numbers Cancún have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 20% and CA La Paz 23%.
How many goals will there be in Cancún vs CA La Paz?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Cancún vs CA La Paz?
Cancún vs CA La Paz (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.