Liga De Expansión MX · MexicoAlebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Alebrijes de Oaxaca to win @ 1.90 – our chance 64% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1.9 – 1.0 Tapatío expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Alebrijes de Oaxaca are clear favourites at home with a 64% chance of winning, against 22% for Tapatío.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (3W 0D 3L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.3 per game. Tapatío have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
We expect around 2.9 goals (1.9 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca, 1.0 for Tapatío). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 58%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (11%), 2–0 (10%), 1–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Alebrijes de Oaxaca have won 1, Tapatío have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 7.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.28. For a bigger price, Alebrijes de Oaxaca to win at 1.90 is our value angle (64% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Alebrijes de Oaxaca to win ✗ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.90 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 85% | 1.17 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 58% | 1.73 | 1.55 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.22 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 56% | 1.78 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.52 | 1.48 |
| Half-time result | Alebrijes de Oaxaca ahead at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.28 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Alebrijes de Oaxaca / FT Alebrijes de Oaxaca ✗ | 38% | 2.62 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 9.27 | – |
Form
Alebrijes de Oaxaca – last 6
| 23 Aug | @ CDS Tampico Madero | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Aug | vs Tepatitlán | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Aug | @ Tlaxcala | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Jul | vs Dorados | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Jul | @ Venados FC | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Apr | @ Correcaminos Uat | 3–1 | W |
Tapatío – last 6
| 24 Aug | vs Mineros de Zacatecas | 4–2 | W |
| 15 Aug | @ Correcaminos Uat | 3–2 | W |
| 9 Aug | @ Venados FC | 2–3 | L |
| 2 Aug | vs CDS Tampico Madero | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Jul | vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Jul | @ Leon | 2–4 | L |
Head to head
| 14 Mar 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca v Tapatío | 4–3 |
Liga De Expansión MX table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CA La Paz | 15 | +18 | 30 |
| 2 |  Leones Negros UDG | 15 | +14 | 30 |
| 3 |  Monarcas | 15 | +7 | 26 |
| 4 |  Piratas | 15 | +12 | 25 |
| 5 |  Cancún | 15 | +10 | 25 |
| 6 |  Venados FC | 15 | +6 | 25 |
| 7 |  Durango | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 |  Tlaxcala | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 15 | -10 | 22 |
| 10 |  Mineros de Zacatecas | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 11 |  Tapatío | 15 | -3 | 18 |
| 12 |  Correcaminos Uat | 15 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 |  Dorados | 15 | -9 | 16 |
| 14 |  CDS Tampico Madero | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 15 |  Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 15 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 |  Tepatitlán | 15 | -33 | 7 |
More Liga De Expansión MX predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío?
On our numbers Alebrijes de Oaxaca have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Tapatío 22%.
How many goals will there be in Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío?
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.