Tlaxcala vs Venados FC prediction & analysis

Tlaxcala are clear favourites at home with a 60% chance of winning, against 20% for Venados FC.

Tlaxcala have taken 1 points from their last 6 matches (0W 1D 5L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.8 per game. Venados FC have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 2.3 scored and 2.0 conceded. Venados FC come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 3.7 goals (2.4 for Tlaxcala, 1.3 for Venados FC). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 1–1 (8%), 3–1 (7%).

In their last 1 meeting, Tlaxcala have won 0, Venados FC have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Tlaxcala or draw at a 80% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.24. For a bigger price, Tlaxcala to win at 1.93 is our value angle (60% on our numbers).