Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán prediction & analysis
86%
Footrivo pick
Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Alebrijes de Oaxaca to win @ 1.70 – our chance 67% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlebrijes de Oaxaca to win ✓67% · @1.70
Double chanceAlebrijes de Oaxaca or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗12% · fair 8.22
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán preview and prediction
The match
Alebrijes de Oaxaca host Tepatitlán in the Liga De Expansión MX on Friday 14 August, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT). Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 9th with 22 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Tepatitlán sit 16th on 7 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Alebrijes de Oaxaca's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Tlaxcala 2–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Tepatitlán's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to CA La Paz 0–5 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 4 April 2026, finished Tepatitlán 2–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.1 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 0.8 for Tepatitlán. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 67%, draw 19%, Tepatitlán 14%.
Safer route: Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Alebrijes de Oaxaca to win at 1.70 – 67% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2–0 Tepatitlán. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alebrijes de Oaxaca67%fair 1.48 · @1.70
Draw19%fair 5.40 · @3.85
Tepatitlán14%fair 7.10 · @4.50
2.86Expected goals
2.06Alebrijes de Oaxaca xG
0.80Tepatitlán xG
55%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2.1 – 0.8 Tepatitlán expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán?
Our pick is Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán?
On our numbers Alebrijes de Oaxaca have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Tepatitlán 14%.
How many goals will there be in Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán?
Our predicted score is Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2–0 Tepatitlán, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán?
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
