Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: England to win @ 1.86 – our chance 66% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultEngland to win ✗66% · @1.86
Double chanceEngland or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗10% · fair 10.17
Norway vs England preview and prediction
The match
Norway host England in the World Cup on Saturday 11 July, with kick-off at 22:00 (WAT) at Hard Rock Stadium.
Form guide
Norway's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Brazil 2–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
England's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Mexico 3–2 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
England arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 2.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 1.0 for Norway and 2.3 for England. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Norway 14%, draw 21%, England 66%.
Safer route: England or draw (86%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.62.
Value angle: England to win at 1.86 – 66% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was England or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Norway 0–2 England. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Norway14%fair 7.38 · @3.85
Draw21%fair 4.79 · @3.65
England66%fair 1.53 · @1.86
3.30Expected goals
0.99Norway xG
2.31England xG
60%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–210%
1–210%
0–19%
1–18%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Norway 1.0 – 2.3 England expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
England to win✗
66%
1.53
1.86 ▲
Double chance
England or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.68
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.44
Half-time result
England ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT England / FT England✗
44%
2.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
10%
10.17
–
Form
Norway – last 6
WWLWWD
5 Jul
@ Brazil
2–1
W
30 Jun
@ Ivory Coast
2–1
W
26 Jun
vs France
1–4
L
23 Jun
vs Senegal
3–2
W
16 Jun
@ Iraq
4–1
W
7 Jun
@ Morocco
1–1
D
2.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
England – last 6
WWWDWW
6 Jul
@ Mexico
3–2
W
1 Jul
vs Congo DR
2–1
W
27 Jun
@ Panama
2–0
W
23 Jun
vs Ghana
0–0
D
17 Jun
vs Croatia
4–2
W
10 Jun
vs Costa Rica
3–0
W
2.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Norway and England.
Our pick is England or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Norway vs England?
On our numbers Norway have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 21% and England 66%.
How many goals will there be in Norway vs England?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Norway vs England?
Our predicted score is Norway 0–2 England, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Norway vs England?
Norway vs England (World Cup) kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Hard Rock Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
