Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau (Ely) prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Over 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Caerau (Ely) to win @ 1.83 – our chance 61% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCaerau (Ely) to win ✓61% · @1.83
Double chanceEither team to win ✓87% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.78
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓66% · @1.50
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.75
Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau (Ely) preview and prediction
The match
The FAW Championship sees Cardiff Draconians take on Caerau (Ely) on Saturday 26 September, kicking off at 14:30 (WAT). Cardiff Draconians are 14th with 12 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Caerau (Ely) sit 4th on 22 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Cardiff Draconians's last 5: WWLDL Most recently they beat Baglan Dragons 2–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Caerau (Ely)'s last 5: WWLLW Most recently they beat llanelli AFC 3–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 1.4 for Cardiff Draconians and 2.2 for Caerau (Ely). Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 66% and both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Caerau (Ely) to win at 1.83 – 61% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Cardiff Draconians 1–2 Caerau (Ely). Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cardiff Draconians26%fair 3.82 · @3.20
Draw13%fair 7.65 · @3.90
Caerau (Ely)61%fair 1.65 · @1.83
3.61Expected goals
1.37Cardiff Draconians xG
2.25Caerau (Ely) xG
56%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%
0–27%
2–26%
0–16%
From our goals model: Cardiff Draconians 1.4 – 2.2 Caerau (Ely) expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caerau (Ely) to win✓
61%
1.65
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
87%
1.15
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Caerau (Ely) ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caerau (Ely) / FT Caerau (Ely)✓
37%
2.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.75
–
Form
Cardiff Draconians – last 6
WWLDLW
12 Sep
vs Baglan Dragons
2–1
W
22 Aug
vs llanelli AFC
4–2
W
15 Aug
vs Pontypridd Town
1–4
L
7 Aug
@ Caerphilly Athletic
0–0
D
1 Aug
@ Ynyshir Albions
0–1
L
24 Mar
vs Ynyshir Albions
4–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Caerau (Ely) – last 6
WWLLWD
11 Sep
vs llanelli AFC
3–0
W
31 Aug
vs Treowen Stars
3–2
W
28 Aug
@ Baglan Dragons
1–3
L
21 Aug
vs Swansea University
1–5
L
14 Aug
@ Trethomas Bluebirds
4–2
W
7 Aug
vs Ynyshir Albions
1–1
D
2.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cardiff Draconians and Caerau (Ely).
What is the prediction for Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau (Ely)?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau (Ely)?
On our numbers Cardiff Draconians have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Caerau (Ely) 61%.
How many goals will there be in Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau (Ely)?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau (Ely)?
Our predicted score is Cardiff Draconians 1–2 Caerau (Ely), the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau (Ely)?
Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau (Ely) (FAW Championship) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
