FAW Championship · WalesBaglan Dragons vs Carmarthen Town prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Baglan Dragons 1.5 – 1.8 Carmarthen Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Carmarthen Town shade it despite being away from home – 46% to win, against 32% for Baglan Dragons.
Baglan Dragons have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.8 per game. Carmarthen Town have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 2.2 scored and 2.2 conceded. Baglan Dragons come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.3 goals (1.5 for Baglan Dragons, 1.8 for Carmarthen Town). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (7%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.57 is better than our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Carmarthen Town to win ✓ | 46% | 2.15 | 2.00 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 66% | 1.53 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.58 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.70 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 38% | 2.66 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Carmarthen Town / FT Carmarthen Town ✓ | 28% | 3.60 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✓ | 9% | 11.04 | – |
Form
Baglan Dragons – last 6
| 12 Sep | @ Cardiff Draconians | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Sep | vs Afan Lido | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | vs Caerphilly Athletic | 0–1 | L |
| 28 Aug | vs Caerau (Ely) | 3–1 | W |
| 21 Aug | @ Newport City | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | @ Llantwit Major | 1–0 | W |
Carmarthen Town – last 6
| 12 Sep | vs Ynyshir Albions | 2–2 | D |
| 31 Aug | vs Trethomas Bluebirds | 2–3 | L |
| 28 Aug | @ llanelli AFC | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | vs Treowen Stars | 2–4 | L |
| 14 Aug | vs Afan Lido | 3–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | @ Newport City | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Baglan Dragons and Carmarthen Town.
FAW Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pontypridd Town | 13 | +13 | 27 |
| 2 |  Aberystwyth Town | 11 | +18 | 25 |
| 3 |  Swansea University | 11 | +19 | 24 |
| 4 |  Caerau (Ely) | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 5 |  Baglan Dragons | 13 | 0 | 20 |
| 6 |  Ynyshir Albions | 11 | +7 | 19 |
| 7 |  Afan Lido | 14 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 |  Trethomas Bluebirds | 13 | +3 | 17 |
| 9 |  Treowen Stars | 12 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 |  Carmarthen Town | 13 | -6 | 15 |
| 11 |  Pontardawe Town | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Caerphilly Athletic | 13 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 |  Newport City | 11 | +4 | 13 |
| 14 |  Cardiff Draconians | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |  Llantwit Major | 12 | -12 | 12 |
| 16 |  llanelli AFC | 14 | -31 | 3 |
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Penrhyncoch0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen Town?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen Town?
On our numbers Baglan Dragons have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Carmarthen Town 46%.
How many goals will there be in Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen Town?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
When is Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen Town?
Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen Town (FAW Championship) kicks off on Friday 25 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.