FAW Championship · WalesAfan Lido vs Newport City prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Newport City to win @ 2.25 – our chance 48% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Afan Lido 1.4 – 1.8 Newport City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Newport City shade it despite being away from home – 48% to win, against 32% for Afan Lido.
Afan Lido have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.7 per game. Newport City have 6 points from their last 6 (2W 0D 4L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
We expect around 3.2 goals (1.4 for Afan Lido, 1.8 for Newport City). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (7%).
In their last 1 meeting, Afan Lido have won 0, Newport City have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.50 is close to our fair price of 1.51. For a bigger price, Newport City to win at 2.25 is our value angle (48% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Newport City to win ✗ | 48% | 2.10 | 2.25 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 80% | 1.26 | 1.29 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 66% | 1.51 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 83% | 1.20 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 63% | 1.60 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 60% | 1.68 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 38% | 2.65 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Newport City / FT Newport City ✗ | 28% | 3.53 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 10.91 | – |
Form
Afan Lido – last 6
| 11 Sep | @ Pontypridd Town | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sep | @ Baglan Dragons | 1–2 | L |
| 31 Aug | vs Ynyshir Albions | 0–0 | D |
| 28 Aug | @ Trethomas Bluebirds | 2–5 | L |
| 21 Aug | vs Pontardawe Town | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | @ Carmarthen Town | 1–3 | L |
Newport City – last 6
| 28 Aug | vs Ynyshir Albions | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Aug | vs Baglan Dragons | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Aug | @ Pontardawe Town | 4–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | vs Carmarthen Town | 1–2 | L |
| 31 Jul | @ llanelli AFC | 4–1 | W |
| 8 Jul | vs Newport County | 0–5 | L |
Head to head
| 13 Feb 2026 | Afan Lido v Newport City | 0–1 |
FAW Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pontypridd Town | 13 | +13 | 27 |
| 2 |  Aberystwyth Town | 11 | +18 | 25 |
| 3 |  Swansea University | 11 | +19 | 24 |
| 4 |  Caerau (Ely) | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 5 |  Baglan Dragons | 13 | 0 | 20 |
| 6 |  Ynyshir Albions | 11 | +7 | 19 |
| 7 |  Afan Lido | 14 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 |  Trethomas Bluebirds | 13 | +3 | 17 |
| 9 |  Treowen Stars | 12 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 |  Carmarthen Town | 13 | -6 | 15 |
| 11 |  Pontardawe Town | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Caerphilly Athletic | 13 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 |  Newport City | 11 | +4 | 13 |
| 14 |  Cardiff Draconians | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |  Llantwit Major | 12 | -12 | 12 |
| 16 |  llanelli AFC | 14 | -31 | 3 |
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Penrhyncoch0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Afan Lido vs Newport City?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Afan Lido vs Newport City?
On our numbers Afan Lido have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Newport City 48%.
How many goals will there be in Afan Lido vs Newport City?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
When is Afan Lido vs Newport City?
Afan Lido vs Newport City (FAW Championship) kicks off on Friday 25 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.