FAW Championship · WalesTrethomas Bluebirds vs Caerau (Ely) prediction & analysis
Caerau (Ely) to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Trethomas Bluebirds 0.8 – 2.0 Caerau (Ely) expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Caerau (Ely) travel as clear favourites – 66% to win, against 16% for Trethomas Bluebirds.
Trethomas Bluebirds have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.2 per game. Caerau (Ely) have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 2.3 scored and 2.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.8 goals (0.8 for Trethomas Bluebirds, 2.0 for Caerau (Ely)). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 48%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (12%), 0–2 (12%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Caerau (Ely) to win at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.55 is better than our fair price of 1.51, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Caerau (Ely) to win ✓ | 66% | 1.51 | 1.55 |
| Double chance | Caerau (Ely) or draw ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 52% | 1.93 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.93 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 70% | 1.42 | – |
| Half-time result | Caerau (Ely) ahead at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.17 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Caerau (Ely) / FT Caerau (Ely) ✗ | 41% | 2.43 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 12% | 8.01 | – |
Form
Trethomas Bluebirds – last 6
| 7 Aug | @ llanelli AFC | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Jul | vs Baglan Dragons | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Jul | @ Barry Town | 1–5 | L |
| 20 Mar | vs Pontypridd Town | 4–2 | W |
| 9 Mar | vs Newport City | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Mar | vs Carmarthen Town | 4–5 | L |
Caerau (Ely) – last 6
| 7 Aug | vs Ynyshir Albions | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Aug | @ Carmarthen Town | 3–4 | L |
| 25 Jul | vs Barnstaple Town | 4–4 | D |
| 21 Jul | @ Haverfordwest County AFC | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Jul | @ Evesham United | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Jul | vs Croesyceiliog AFC | 5–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Trethomas Bluebirds and Caerau (Ely).
FAW Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pontypridd Town | 13 | +13 | 27 |
| 2 |  Aberystwyth Town | 11 | +18 | 25 |
| 3 |  Swansea University | 11 | +19 | 24 |
| 4 |  Caerau (Ely) | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 5 |  Baglan Dragons | 13 | 0 | 20 |
| 6 |  Ynyshir Albions | 11 | +7 | 19 |
| 7 |  Afan Lido | 14 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 |  Trethomas Bluebirds | 13 | +3 | 17 |
| 9 |  Treowen Stars | 12 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 |  Carmarthen Town | 13 | -6 | 15 |
| 11 |  Pontardawe Town | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Caerphilly Athletic | 13 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 |  Newport City | 11 | +4 | 13 |
| 14 |  Cardiff Draconians | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |  Llantwit Major | 12 | -12 | 12 |
| 16 |  llanelli AFC | 14 | -31 | 3 |
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Denbigh Town1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerau (Ely)?
Our pick is Caerau (Ely) to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerau (Ely)?
On our numbers Trethomas Bluebirds have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Caerau (Ely) 66%.
How many goals will there be in Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerau (Ely)?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
When is Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerau (Ely)?
Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerau (Ely) (FAW Championship) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.