Newport City vs Carmarthen Town prediction & analysis

Very little separates Newport City and Carmarthen Town on our numbers – 36% for the home side, 40% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.

Newport City have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (1W 0D 5L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.7 per game. Carmarthen Town have 10 points from their last 5 (3W 1D 1L), averaging 3.4 scored and 3.2 conceded. Carmarthen Town come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 6.0 goals (2.9 for Newport City, 3.1 for Carmarthen Town). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 94% likely and both teams score 74% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–3 (5%), 2–2 (5%), 3–3 (5%).

In their last 1 meeting, Newport City have won 0, Carmarthen Town have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 8.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Both teams to score at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.53 is better than our fair price of 1.36, so there is value in it.