Value bet: Newtown AFC to win @ 2.30 – our chance 46% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultNewtown AFC to win46% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score67% · @1.44
GoalsOver 2.5 goals68% · fair 1.47
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 11.43
Caersws vs Newtown AFC preview and prediction
The match
Caersws host Newtown AFC in the FAW Championship on Saturday 22 August, with kick-off at 14:30 (WAT). Caersws are 6th with 23 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Newtown AFC sit 2nd on 30 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Caersws's last 5: LWDWL Most recently they lost to Rhyl 2–4 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Newtown AFC's last 5: DWWLL Most recently they drew with Guilsfield 1–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 1.6 for Caersws and 1.9 for Newtown AFC. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score in 67% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Caersws 33%, draw 20%, Newtown AFC 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (67%) at 1.44.
Value angle: Newtown AFC to win at 2.30 – 46% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 67% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Caersws 1–1 Newtown AFC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Caersws33%fair 3.00 · @2.50
Draw20%fair 4.89 · @3.40
Newtown AFC46%fair 2.16 · @2.30
3.50Expected goals
1.59Caersws xG
1.91Newtown AFC xG
67%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
1–29%
2–17%
2–27%
0–16%
1–36%
From our goals model: Caersws 1.6 – 1.9 Newtown AFC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Newtown AFC to win
46%
2.16
2.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
80%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
67%
1.49
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
86%
1.16
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
54%
1.86
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
36%
2.78
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Newtown AFC / FT Newtown AFC
28%
3.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
11.43
–
Form
Caersws – last 6
LWDWLW
15 Aug
@ Rhyl
2–4
L
8 Aug
vs Gresford Athletic
1–0
W
1 Aug
@ Mold Alexandra
2–2
D
13 Apr
vs Buckley Town
3–2
W
6 Apr
vs Penrhyncoch
1–2
L
3 Apr
@ Gresford Athletic
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Newtown AFC – last 6
DWWLLW
15 Aug
vs Guilsfield
1–1
D
8 Aug
vs Penrhyncoch
5–0
W
2 Aug
@ Gresford Athletic
3–0
W
8 Apr
@ Holywell
0–6
L
3 Apr
vs Mold Alexandra
1–2
L
24 Mar
vs Rhyl
6–1
W
2.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caersws and Newtown AFC.
What is the prediction for Caersws vs Newtown AFC?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Caersws vs Newtown AFC?
On our numbers Caersws have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Newtown AFC 46%.
How many goals will there be in Caersws vs Newtown AFC?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caersws vs Newtown AFC?
Our predicted score is Caersws 1–1 Newtown AFC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Caersws vs Newtown AFC?
Caersws vs Newtown AFC (FAW Championship) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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