FAW Championship · WalesDenbigh Town vs Porthmadog prediction & analysis
Denbigh Town to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.95 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Denbigh Town 2.1 – 1.1 Porthmadog expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Denbigh Town are clear favourites at home with a 64% chance of winning, against 22% for Porthmadog.
Denbigh Town have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.3 per game. Porthmadog have 7 points from their last 3 (2W 1D 0L), averaging 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. Porthmadog come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.2 goals (2.1 for Denbigh Town, 1.1 for Porthmadog). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (9%), 2–0 (9%).
Our pick is Denbigh Town to win at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.95 is better than our fair price of 1.57, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Denbigh Town to win ✗ | 64% | 1.57 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 85% | 1.17 | 1.25 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 62% | 1.60 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 82% | 1.21 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 61% | 1.63 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 61% | 1.64 | – |
| Half-time result | Denbigh Town ahead at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.23 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Denbigh Town / FT Denbigh Town ✗ | 39% | 2.57 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.09 | – |
Form
Denbigh Town – last 6
| 14 Aug | @ Ruthin Town | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Aug | vs Bangor City 1876 FC | 1–2 | L |
| 1 Aug | @ Buckley Town | 4–2 | W |
| 3 Jul | @ Colwyn Bay | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Apr | vs Penrhyncoch | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Mar | vs Holyhead Hotspur | 1–1 | D |
Porthmadog – last 3
| 15 Aug | @ Buckley Town | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Aug | vs Rhyl | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Aug | @ Penrhyncoch | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Denbigh Town and Porthmadog.
FAW Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brickfield Rangers | 14 | +19 | 34 |
| 2 |  Newtown AFC | 13 | +19 | 30 |
| 3 |  Porthmadog | 14 | +7 | 27 |
| 4 |  Mold Alexandra | 13 | +15 | 25 |
| 5 |  Bala Town | 14 | +3 | 24 |
| 6 |  Caersws | 13 | +10 | 23 |
| 7 |  Bangor City 1876 FC | 13 | +15 | 22 |
| 8 |  Guilsfield | 14 | +1 | 18 |
| 9 |  Buckley Town | 14 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 13 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 |  Llanuwchllyn | 14 | -9 | 15 |
| 12 |  Denbigh Town | 13 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Rhyl | 14 | -3 | 13 |
| 14 |  Ruthin Town | 13 | -12 | 12 |
| 15 |  Gresford Athletic | 12 | -26 | 7 |
| 16 |  Penrhyncoch | 13 | -34 | 1 |
More FAW Championship predictions
League hub
Pontypridd Town2
Trethomas Bluebirds1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Denbigh Town vs Porthmadog?
Our pick is Denbigh Town to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Denbigh Town vs Porthmadog?
On our numbers Denbigh Town have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Porthmadog 22%.
How many goals will there be in Denbigh Town vs Porthmadog?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
When is Denbigh Town vs Porthmadog?
Denbigh Town vs Porthmadog (FAW Championship) kicks off on Friday 21 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.