Merelbeke host Heist in the First Amateur Division on Friday 6 November, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Merelbeke's last 5: LDWLD Most recently they lost to Roeselare Daisel 0–4 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Heist's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Houtvenne 4–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Heist arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 0.9 for Merelbeke and 2.3 for Heist. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Merelbeke 12%, draw 20%, Heist 69%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.50.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Heist to win – a 69% chance at odds of 1.53, above our fair price of 1.46, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Merelbeke 0–2 Heist. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Merelbeke12%fair 8.49 · @4.55
Draw20%fair 5.10 · @4.00
Heist69%fair 1.46 · @1.53
3.14Expected goals
0.86Merelbeke xG
2.28Heist xG
59%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–211%
0–110%
1–210%
0–39%
1–18%
1–37%
From our goals model: Merelbeke 0.9 – 2.3 Heist expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Heist to win✗
69%
1.46
1.53
Double chance
Heist or draw✗
88%
1.13
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.68
1.59
Half-time result
Heist ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Heist / FT Heist✗
46%
2.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
11%
8.90
–
Form
Merelbeke – last 6
LDWLDD
30 Oct
vs Roeselare Daisel
0–4
L
24 Oct
@ Houtvenne
1–1
D
18 Oct
@ Knokke
3–0
W
11 Oct
vs Mandel United
0–2
L
4 Oct
@ Tienen
0–0
D
30 Sep
vs Dessel Sport
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Heist – last 6
WWWLDW
31 Oct
vs Houtvenne
4–0
W
24 Oct
@ Zelzate
5–1
W
21 Oct
vs Tienen
4–0
W
17 Oct
vs Antwerp
0–1
L
11 Oct
@ Oud-Heverlee Leuven II
0–0
D
3 Oct
vs Cercle Brugge II
3–1
W
2.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Merelbeke and Heist.
Our pick is Heist to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Merelbeke vs Heist?
On our numbers Merelbeke have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Heist 69%.
How many goals will there be in Merelbeke vs Heist?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Merelbeke vs Heist?
Our predicted score is Merelbeke 0–2 Heist, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Merelbeke vs Heist?
Merelbeke vs Heist (First Amateur Division) kicks off on Friday 6 November 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
