Spouwen-Mopertingen vs Merelbeke prediction & analysis
84%
Footrivo pick
Spouwen-Mopertingen or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Spouwen-Mopertingen to win @ 1.85 – our chance 64% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSpouwen-Mopertingen to win ✓64% · @1.85
Double chanceSpouwen-Mopertingen or draw ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗71% · @1.44
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 13.34
Spouwen-Mopertingen vs Merelbeke preview and prediction
The match
Merelbeke travel to face Spouwen-Mopertingen in the First Amateur Division on Sunday 13 September (14:00 WAT).
Form guide
Spouwen-Mopertingen's last 5: LDLWW Most recently they lost to Houtvenne 3–4 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Merelbeke's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Cercle Brugge II 3–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 2.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.5 goals: 3.0 for Spouwen-Mopertingen and 1.5 for Merelbeke. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score in 71% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Safer route: Spouwen-Mopertingen or draw (84%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (71%) at 1.44.
Value angle: Spouwen-Mopertingen to win at 1.85 – 64% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Spouwen-Mopertingen or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Spouwen-Mopertingen 2–1 Merelbeke. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Spouwen-Mopertingen64%fair 1.55 · @1.85
Draw20%fair 5.01 · @3.30
Merelbeke16%fair 6.40 · @3.30
4.50Expected goals
2.96Spouwen-Mopertingen xG
1.54Merelbeke xG
71%Both score
83%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–17%
3–17%
2–26%
3–26%
4–15%
1–15%
From our goals model: Spouwen-Mopertingen 3.0 – 1.5 Merelbeke expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Spouwen-Mopertingen to win✓
64%
1.55
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Spouwen-Mopertingen or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
71%
1.41
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
94%
1.07
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Spouwen-Mopertingen ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Spouwen-Mopertingen / FT Spouwen-Mopertingen✓
45%
2.22
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
7%
13.34
–
Form
Spouwen-Mopertingen – last 6
LDLWWL
6 Sep
vs Houtvenne
3–4
L
30 Aug
@ Roeselare Daisel
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Sporting Hasselt
0–4
L
26 Apr
@ Diegem Sport
3–2
W
19 Apr
vs Zelzate
5–0
W
29 Mar
vs Tienen
0–2
L
2.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Merelbeke – last 6
WWLLLL
6 Sep
vs Cercle Brugge II
3–1
W
28 Aug
@ Hoogstraten
3–2
W
8 Aug
vs K. Lierse S.K.
0–2
L
27 Jun
vs Gent
1–6
L
26 Apr
@ Ninove
1–3
L
19 Apr
vs Roeselare Daisel
1–3
L
1.5Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Spouwen-Mopertingen and Merelbeke.
What is the prediction for Spouwen-Mopertingen vs Merelbeke?
Our pick is Spouwen-Mopertingen or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Spouwen-Mopertingen vs Merelbeke?
On our numbers Spouwen-Mopertingen have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Merelbeke 16%.
How many goals will there be in Spouwen-Mopertingen vs Merelbeke?
We expect about 4.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score 71% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spouwen-Mopertingen vs Merelbeke?
Our predicted score is Spouwen-Mopertingen 2–1 Merelbeke, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.5 goals in total.
When is Spouwen-Mopertingen vs Merelbeke?
Spouwen-Mopertingen vs Merelbeke (First Amateur Division) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Flénu1
Meux4
Habay-la-Neuve0
Standard Liège II0
Cercle Brugge II2
Knokke1
Harelbeke0
Tienen4
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II4
Zelzate3
Roeselare Daisel1
Mandel United0