First League · Russia · Stadion Arsenal
Arsenal Tula
Chelyabinsk
Arsenal Tula vs Chelyabinsk prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.29 · Won ✓
Value bet: Chelyabinsk to win @ 3.20 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Arsenal Tula 1.5 – 1.4 Chelyabinsk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Arsenal Tula and Chelyabinsk on our numbers – 41% for the home side, 35% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Arsenal Tula have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (2W 0D 4L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.8 per game. Chelyabinsk have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.9 goals (1.5 for Arsenal Tula, 1.4 for Chelyabinsk). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 62%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Arsenal Tula have won 0, Chelyabinsk have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 0.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.29 is close to our fair price of 1.33. For a bigger price, Chelyabinsk to win at 3.20 is our value angle (35% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Arsenal Tula to win ✗ | 41% | 2.44 | 2.28 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | 1.32 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 62% | 1.62 | 1.72 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.33 | 1.29 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.94 | 1.97 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.42 | 1.29 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 41% | 2.45 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Arsenal Tula / FT Arsenal Tula ✗ | 24% | 4.20 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.45 | – |
Form
Arsenal Tula – last 6
| 30 Oct | @ Nizhny Novgorod | 0–4 | L |
| 24 Oct | vs KAMAZ | 4–3 | W |
| 17 Oct | @ FC UFA | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs Spartak Kostroma | 3–2 | W |
| 4 Oct | @ CSKA Moscow | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | @ Enisey | 1–3 | L |
Chelyabinsk – last 6
| 31 Oct | vs Shinnik Yaroslavl | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Oct | vs Ural | 1–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | @ Tekstilshchik | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Oct | @ Spartak Kostroma | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Oct | @ FK Neftekhimik | 4–2 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Enisey | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 22 Apr 2026 | Arsenal Tula v Chelyabinsk | 0–0 |
More First League predictions
Shinnik Yaroslavl2
FC UFA1
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
63%@1.53
✓
FT
Torpedo Moskva1
FK Neftekhimik0
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
74%@1.30
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Arsenal Tula vs Chelyabinsk?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Arsenal Tula vs Chelyabinsk?
On our numbers Arsenal Tula have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Chelyabinsk 35%.
How many goals will there be in Arsenal Tula vs Chelyabinsk?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
When is Arsenal Tula vs Chelyabinsk?
Arsenal Tula vs Chelyabinsk (First League) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Arsenal.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.