First League · Russia · Central Stadium (Chelyabinsk)Chelyabinsk vs Ural prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.35 · bookmaker 1.23 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Ural to win @ 1.79 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Chelyabinsk 0.8 – 1.8 Ural expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Ural travel as clear favourites – 63% to win, against 16% for Chelyabinsk.
Chelyabinsk have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.3 per game. Ural have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.6 goals (0.8 for Chelyabinsk, 1.8 for Ural). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 51%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (14%), 0–2 (12%), 1–1 (11%).
In their last 2 meetings, Chelyabinsk have won 0, Ural have won 1 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.23 is close to our fair price of 1.35. For a bigger price, Ural to win at 1.79 is our value angle (63% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ural to win ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.79 ▲ |
| Double chance | Ural or draw ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.95 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.39 | 1.28 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 53% | 1.89 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 74% | 1.35 | 1.23 |
| Half-time result | Ural ahead at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.27 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Ural / FT Ural ✗ | 39% | 2.55 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 14% | 7.26 | – |
Form
Chelyabinsk – last 6
| 18 Oct | @ Tekstilshchik | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Oct | @ Spartak Kostroma | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Oct | @ FK Neftekhimik | 4–2 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Enisey | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs FC UFA | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sep | @ KAMAZ | 1–1 | D |
Ural – last 6
| 18 Oct | vs Nizhny Novgorod | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Veles | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | @ Spartak Kostroma | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Sep | @ FK Neftekhimik | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Sep | @ Shinnik Yaroslavl | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Sep | @ Luki-Energiya | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 4 Jul 2026 | Ural v Chelyabinsk | 1–1 |
| 26 Apr 2026 | Chelyabinsk v Ural | 1–2 |
First League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nizhny Novgorod | 17 | +37 | 46 |
| 2 |  Ural | 17 | +18 | 34 |
| 3 |  Torpedo Moskva | 17 | +16 | 32 |
| 4 |  FC Sochi | 17 | +6 | 32 |
| 5 |  Veles | 18 | +2 | 31 |
| 6 |  Spartak Kostroma | 17 | +2 | 28 |
| 7 |  Shinnik Yaroslavl | 17 | +4 | 26 |
| 8 |  FC UFA | 17 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Volga Ulyanovsk | 18 | -3 | 22 |
| 10 |  Rotor Volgograd | 17 | +5 | 21 |
| 11 |  Chelyabinsk | 17 | -4 | 21 |
| 12 |  Arsenal Tula | 17 | -15 | 19 |
| 13 |  Leningradets | 17 | -11 | 18 |
| 14 |  Enisey | 17 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 |  Ska-khabarovsk | 17 | -5 | 16 |
| 16 |  KAMAZ | 17 | -9 | 14 |
| 17 |  FK Neftekhimik | 17 | -14 | 13 |
| 18 |  Tekstilshchik | 17 | -17 | 11 |
More First League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Chelyabinsk vs Ural?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win Chelyabinsk vs Ural?
On our numbers Chelyabinsk have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Ural 63%.
How many goals will there be in Chelyabinsk vs Ural?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Chelyabinsk vs Ural?
Chelyabinsk vs Ural (First League) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Central Stadium (Chelyabinsk).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.