First League · Russia · Neftekhimik StadiumFK Neftekhimik vs Chelyabinsk prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
Value bet: Chelyabinsk to win @ 2.98 – our chance 39% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: FK Neftekhimik 1.1 – 1.2 Chelyabinsk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates FK Neftekhimik and Chelyabinsk on our numbers – 35% for the home side, 39% for the visitors and 26% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
FK Neftekhimik have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 0.7 per game. Chelyabinsk have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.1 for FK Neftekhimik, 1.2 for Chelyabinsk). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 38%, both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (12%), 1–0 (12%).
In their last 1 meeting, FK Neftekhimik have won 0, Chelyabinsk have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.44 is close to our fair price of 1.56. For a bigger price, Chelyabinsk to win at 2.98 is our value angle (39% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Chelyabinsk to win ✓ | 39% | 2.55 | 2.98 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 74% | 1.35 | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 54% | 1.87 | 2.02 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 62% | 1.62 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 81% | 1.24 | 1.13 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 47% | 2.12 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Chelyabinsk / FT Chelyabinsk ✓ | 21% | 4.67 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 12% | 8.01 | – |
Form
FK Neftekhimik – last 6
| 18 Sep | vs Ural | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Sep | @ Spartak Kostroma | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Sep | @ Chertanovo Moscow | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | @ Enisey | 2–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | vs FC UFA | 0–1 | L |
| 24 Aug | @ Rotor Volgograd | 1–0 | W |
Chelyabinsk – last 6
| 26 Sep | vs Enisey | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs FC UFA | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sep | @ KAMAZ | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Sep | @ Dinamo Barnaul | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Spartak Kostroma | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | @ FC Sochi | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 2 May 2026 | Chelyabinsk v FK Neftekhimik | 2–0 |
First League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nizhny Novgorod | 17 | +37 | 46 |
| 2 |  Ural | 17 | +18 | 34 |
| 3 |  Torpedo Moskva | 17 | +16 | 32 |
| 4 |  FC Sochi | 17 | +6 | 32 |
| 5 |  Veles | 18 | +2 | 31 |
| 6 |  Spartak Kostroma | 17 | +2 | 28 |
| 7 |  Shinnik Yaroslavl | 17 | +4 | 26 |
| 8 |  FC UFA | 17 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Volga Ulyanovsk | 18 | -3 | 22 |
| 10 |  Rotor Volgograd | 17 | +5 | 21 |
| 11 |  Chelyabinsk | 17 | -4 | 21 |
| 12 |  Arsenal Tula | 17 | -15 | 19 |
| 13 |  Leningradets | 17 | -11 | 18 |
| 14 |  Enisey | 17 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 |  Ska-khabarovsk | 17 | -5 | 16 |
| 16 |  KAMAZ | 17 | -9 | 14 |
| 17 |  FK Neftekhimik | 17 | -14 | 13 |
| 18 |  Tekstilshchik | 17 | -17 | 11 |
More First League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for FK Neftekhimik vs Chelyabinsk?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win FK Neftekhimik vs Chelyabinsk?
On our numbers FK Neftekhimik have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Chelyabinsk 39%.
How many goals will there be in FK Neftekhimik vs Chelyabinsk?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is FK Neftekhimik vs Chelyabinsk?
FK Neftekhimik vs Chelyabinsk (First League) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Neftekhimik Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.