First League · Russia · Stadion UrozhaySpartak Kostroma vs Ural prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.36 · Won ✓
Value bet: Spartak Kostroma to win @ 3.45 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Spartak Kostroma 1.0 – 1.2 Ural expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Ural shade it despite being away from home – 45% to win, against 32% for Spartak Kostroma.
Spartak Kostroma have taken 15 points from their last 6 matches (5W 0D 1L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.5 per game. Ural have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded. Spartak Kostroma come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.0 for Spartak Kostroma, 1.2 for Ural). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (13%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (11%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.36 is close to our fair price of 1.52. For a bigger price, Spartak Kostroma to win at 3.45 is our value angle (32% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ural to win ✓ | 45% | 2.22 | 2.11 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.32 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.94 | 1.93 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.52 | 1.36 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.59 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.26 | 1.17 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 47% | 2.12 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Ural / FT Ural ✗ | 24% | 4.15 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 13% | 7.42 | – |
Form
Spartak Kostroma – last 6
| 18 Sep | @ Volga Ulyanovsk | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Sep | vs FK Neftekhimik | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Sep | @ Ryazan | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ Chelyabinsk | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | vs Rotor Volgograd | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Aug | @ Torpedo Moskva | 0–3 | L |
Ural – last 6
| 18 Sep | @ FK Neftekhimik | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Sep | @ Shinnik Yaroslavl | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Sep | @ Luki-Energiya | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs KAMAZ | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | @ Arsenal Tula | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | vs Tekstilshchik | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Spartak Kostroma and Ural.
First League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nizhny Novgorod | 17 | +37 | 46 |
| 2 |  Ural | 17 | +18 | 34 |
| 3 |  Torpedo Moskva | 17 | +16 | 32 |
| 4 |  FC Sochi | 17 | +6 | 32 |
| 5 |  Veles | 18 | +2 | 31 |
| 6 |  Spartak Kostroma | 17 | +2 | 28 |
| 7 |  Shinnik Yaroslavl | 17 | +4 | 26 |
| 8 |  FC UFA | 17 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Volga Ulyanovsk | 18 | -3 | 22 |
| 10 |  Rotor Volgograd | 17 | +5 | 21 |
| 11 |  Chelyabinsk | 17 | -4 | 21 |
| 12 |  Arsenal Tula | 17 | -15 | 19 |
| 13 |  Leningradets | 17 | -11 | 18 |
| 14 |  Enisey | 17 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 |  Ska-khabarovsk | 17 | -5 | 16 |
| 16 |  KAMAZ | 17 | -9 | 14 |
| 17 |  FK Neftekhimik | 17 | -14 | 13 |
| 18 |  Tekstilshchik | 17 | -17 | 11 |
More First League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Spartak Kostroma vs Ural?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Spartak Kostroma vs Ural?
On our numbers Spartak Kostroma have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Ural 45%.
How many goals will there be in Spartak Kostroma vs Ural?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Spartak Kostroma vs Ural?
Spartak Kostroma vs Ural (First League) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Urozhay.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.