Value bet: Shinnik Yaroslavl to win @ 2.39 – our chance 45% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultShinnik Yaroslavl to win ✗45% · @2.39
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.84
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.96
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula preview and prediction
The match
The First League sees Shinnik Yaroslavl take on Arsenal Tula on Saturday 8 August, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Stadion Shinnik. Shinnik Yaroslavl are 7th with 26 points from 17 games (in the top half), while Arsenal Tula sit 12th on 19 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Shinnik Yaroslavl's last 5: LDWDD Most recently they lost to Nizhny Novgorod 0–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Arsenal Tula's last 5: WLLWD Most recently they beat Torpedo Moskva 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.4 for Shinnik Yaroslavl and 1.1 for Arsenal Tula. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Shinnik Yaroslavl 45%, draw 23%, Arsenal Tula 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.84.
Value angle: Shinnik Yaroslavl to win at 2.39 – 45% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.21. Predicted score: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–1 Arsenal Tula. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Shinnik Yaroslavl45%fair 2.22 · @2.39
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.10
Arsenal Tula32%fair 3.09 · @2.96
2.53Expected goals
1.40Shinnik Yaroslavl xG
1.13Arsenal Tula xG
51%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1.4 – 1.1 Arsenal Tula expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Shinnik Yaroslavl to win✗
45%
2.22
2.39 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
1.84
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.21
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Shinnik Yaroslavl / FT Shinnik Yaroslavl✗
25%
3.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.96
–
Form
Shinnik Yaroslavl – last 6
LDWDDD
2 Aug
@ Nizhny Novgorod
0–3
L
26 Jul
@ Torpedo Moskva
1–1
D
19 Jul
vs Leningradets
2–0
W
12 Jul
vs FC Sochi
2–2
D
30 Jun
@ CSKA Moscow
1–1
D
11 May
vs Torpedo Moskva
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Arsenal Tula – last 6
WLLWDD
2 Aug
vs Torpedo Moskva
1–0
W
26 Jul
@ FC Sochi
0–5
L
19 Jul
vs FK Neftekhimik
0–1
L
13 Jul
vs Tekstilshchik
2–1
W
4 Jul
@ CSKA Moscow
1–1
D
26 Jun
@ FC Sochi
3–3
D
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Shinnik Yaroslavl and Arsenal Tula.
What is the prediction for Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.21.
Who will win Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula?
On our numbers Shinnik Yaroslavl have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Arsenal Tula 32%.
How many goals will there be in Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula?
Our predicted score is Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–1 Arsenal Tula, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula?
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula (First League) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Shinnik.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
