Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Penafiel to win @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenafiel to win ✓56% · @1.91
Double chancePenafiel or draw ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 6.97
Penafiel vs Feirense preview and prediction
The match
Feirense travel to Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril in the Segunda Liga on Monday 2 November (19:00 WAT) to face Penafiel. Penafiel are 1st with 22 points from 10 games (top of the table), while Feirense sit 18th on 5 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Penafiel's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Farense 4–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Feirense's last 5: DLLLL Most recently they drew with Benfica B 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 4 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Penafiel arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 March 2026, finished Feirense 1–0 Penafiel.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.6 for Penafiel and 0.8 for Feirense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 48%.
Value angle: Penafiel to win at 1.91 – 56% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Penafiel or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Penafiel 1–0 Feirense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penafiel56%fair 1.80 · @1.91
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.10
Feirense21%fair 4.72 · @3.60
2.38Expected goals
1.55Penafiel xG
0.83Feirense xG
48%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
0–09%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Penafiel 1.6 – 0.8 Feirense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Penafiel or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Penafiel vs Feirense?
On our numbers Penafiel have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Feirense 21%.
How many goals will there be in Penafiel vs Feirense?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penafiel vs Feirense?
Our predicted score is Penafiel 1–0 Feirense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Penafiel vs Feirense?
Penafiel vs Feirense (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Monday 2 November 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
