Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Penafiel to win @ 1.91 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenafiel to win ✗61% · @1.91
Double chancePenafiel or draw ✗87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.84
Penafiel vs AVS preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda Liga sees Penafiel take on AVS on Friday 9 October, kicking off at 18:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril. Penafiel are 1st with 22 points from 10 games (top of the table), while AVS sit 11th on 13 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Penafiel's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Oliveirense 2–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
AVS's last 5: WDLWD Most recently they beat Sintrense 2–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Penafiel arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Penafiel and 0.7 for AVS. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Penafiel 61%, draw 26%, AVS 13%.
Safer route: Penafiel or draw (87%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Penafiel to win at 1.91 – 61% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Penafiel or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Penafiel 1–0 AVS. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penafiel61%fair 1.63 · @1.91
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @3.00
AVS13%fair 7.64 · @3.90
2.50Expected goals
1.78Penafiel xG
0.72AVS xG
54%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: Penafiel 1.8 – 0.7 AVS expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penafiel to win✗
61%
1.63
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Penafiel or draw✗
87%
1.15
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Penafiel ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penafiel / FT Penafiel✗
39%
2.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.84
–
Form
Penafiel – last 6
WWWWWD
19 Sep
@ Oliveirense
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Felgueiras 1932
2–1
W
5 Sep
vs Academica
4–1
W
30 Aug
@ FC Porto B
3–0
W
23 Aug
vs Sporting CP B
2–0
W
15 Aug
@ Torreense
2–2
D
2.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
AVS – last 6
WDLWDD
20 Sep
@ Sintrense
2–0
W
13 Sep
vs Farense
0–0
D
7 Sep
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
1–2
L
30 Aug
vs Feirense
2–0
W
23 Aug
@ Chaves
2–2
D
17 Aug
@ Felgueiras 1932
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penafiel and AVS.
Our pick is Penafiel or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Penafiel vs AVS?
On our numbers Penafiel have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 26% and AVS 13%.
How many goals will there be in Penafiel vs AVS?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penafiel vs AVS?
Our predicted score is Penafiel 1–0 AVS, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Penafiel vs AVS?
Penafiel vs AVS (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
