União de Leiria host Tondela in the Segunda Liga on Friday 28 August, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa. União de Leiria are 5th with 17 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Tondela sit 7th on 16 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
União de Leiria's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Leixoes 4–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Tondela's last 5: LLWLD Most recently they lost to Academica 0–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
União de Leiria arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for União de Leiria and 1.2 for Tondela. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: União de Leiria 43%, draw 22%, Tondela 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: União de Leiria 1–1 Tondela. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
União de Leiria43%fair 2.31 · @2.36
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.15
Tondela35%fair 2.90 · @2.85
2.59Expected goals
1.39União de Leiria xG
1.20Tondela xG
56%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: União de Leiria 1.4 – 1.2 Tondela expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
União de Leiria to win✓
43%
2.31
2.36
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT União de Leiria / FT União de Leiria✗
24%
4.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.59
–
Form
União de Leiria – last 6
WLLLWD
22 Aug
@ Leixoes
4–2
W
15 Aug
vs Benfica B
1–2
L
9 Aug
@ Vizela
0–1
L
28 Jul
@ Las Palmas
2–3
L
15 Jul
vs AD Marco 09
2–0
W
17 May
vs Feirense
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Tondela – last 6
LLWLDL
21 Aug
vs Academica
0–2
L
16 Aug
@ Leixoes
0–1
L
8 Aug
vs Amarante
2–1
W
1 Aug
@ Rio Ave
1–3
L
29 Jul
vs São João Ver
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Beira-Mar
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between União de Leiria and Tondela.
What is the prediction for União de Leiria vs Tondela?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win União de Leiria vs Tondela?
On our numbers União de Leiria have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Tondela 35%.
How many goals will there be in União de Leiria vs Tondela?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for União de Leiria vs Tondela?
Our predicted score is União de Leiria 1–1 Tondela, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is União de Leiria vs Tondela?
União de Leiria vs Tondela (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
