Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli prediction & analysis
80%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: FC St. Pauli to win @ 2.90 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultArminia Bielefeld to win ✗41% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.62
Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli preview and prediction
The match
Arminia Bielefeld host FC St. Pauli in the 2. Bundesliga on Friday 4 September, with kick-off at 17:30 (WAT). Arminia Bielefeld are 6th with 17 points from 11 games (in the top half), while FC St. Pauli sit 9th on 12 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Arminia Bielefeld's last 5: LDWLD Most recently they lost to 1. FC Nürnberg 1–4 away. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
FC St. Pauli's last 5: LLDDD Most recently they lost to 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Arminia Bielefeld arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.6 for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.5 for FC St. Pauli. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 60% and both teams to score at 64%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arminia Bielefeld 41%, draw 22%, FC St. Pauli 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.50.
Value angle: FC St. Pauli to win at 2.90 – 37% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 FC St. Pauli. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arminia Bielefeld41%fair 2.45 · @2.25
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.60
FC St. Pauli37%fair 2.72 · @2.90
3.18Expected goals
1.64Arminia Bielefeld xG
1.54FC St. Pauli xG
64%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
2–27%
0–16%
From our goals model: Arminia Bielefeld 1.6 – 1.5 FC St. Pauli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arminia Bielefeld to win✗
41%
2.45
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.57
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
1.50
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
38%
2.61
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arminia Bielefeld / FT Arminia Bielefeld✗
24%
4.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.62
–
Form
Arminia Bielefeld – last 6
LDWLDW
29 Aug
@ 1. FC Nürnberg
1–4
L
22 Aug
@ SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
2–2
D
16 Aug
vs Energie Cottbus
3–0
W
8 Aug
@ Karlsruher SC
1–2
L
25 Jul
vs MSV Duisburg
1–1
D
18 Jul
@ Bologna
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
FC St. Pauli – last 6
LLDDDL
30 Aug
vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
1–2
L
23 Aug
@ Rot-Weiß Essen
0–2
L
14 Aug
@ Holstein Kiel
2–2
D
9 Aug
vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1–1
D
1 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruna
2–2
D
24 Jul
@ Bournemouth
1–4
L
1.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arminia Bielefeld and FC St. Pauli.
What is the prediction for Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli?
On our numbers Arminia Bielefeld have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 22% and FC St. Pauli 37%.
How many goals will there be in Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli?
Our predicted score is Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 FC St. Pauli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli?
Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli (2. Bundesliga) kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
