Value bet: FC St. Pauli to win @ 2.85 – our chance 37% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultHolstein Kiel to win ✗40% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.72
Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli preview and prediction
The match
Holstein Kiel host FC St. Pauli in the 2. Bundesliga on Friday 14 August, with kick-off at 17:30 (WAT) at Holstein-Stadion. Holstein Kiel are 18th with 8 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while FC St. Pauli sit 9th on 12 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Holstein Kiel's last 5: DLLDW Most recently they drew with SV Darmstadt 98 2–2 away. They average 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded.
FC St. Pauli's last 5: DDLWW Most recently they drew with SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
FC St. Pauli arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.5 for Holstein Kiel and 1.4 for FC St. Pauli. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 60%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Holstein Kiel 40%, draw 23%, FC St. Pauli 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.60.
Value angle: FC St. Pauli to win at 2.85 – 37% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Holstein Kiel 1–1 FC St. Pauli. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Holstein Kiel40%fair 2.51 · @2.30
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.50
FC St. Pauli37%fair 2.67 · @2.85
2.89Expected goals
1.47Holstein Kiel xG
1.42FC St. Pauli xG
60%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
2–19%
1–28%
1–08%
0–18%
2–26%
From our goals model: Holstein Kiel 1.5 – 1.4 FC St. Pauli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Holstein Kiel to win✗
40%
2.51
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
1.38
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Holstein Kiel / FT Holstein Kiel✗
23%
4.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.72
–
Form
Holstein Kiel – last 6
DLLDWW
8 Aug
@ SV Darmstadt 98
2–2
D
29 Jul
@ 1899 Hoffenheim
1–3
L
25 Jul
@ FSV Mainz 05
0–3
L
18 Jul
@ Swansea
2–2
D
15 Jul
vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
4–1
W
10 Jul
vs Sonderjyske
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
FC St. Pauli – last 6
DDLWWW
9 Aug
vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1–1
D
1 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruna
2–2
D
24 Jul
@ Bournemouth
1–4
L
19 Jul
vs HNK Gorica
2–1
W
11 Jul
@ SV Babelsberg 03
4–1
W
4 Jul
@ Kickers Emden
3–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli.
What is the prediction for Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
On our numbers Holstein Kiel have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and FC St. Pauli 37%.
How many goals will there be in Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
Our predicted score is Holstein Kiel 1–1 FC St. Pauli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli (2. Bundesliga) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Holstein-Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
