Penybont travel to Ynys Park in the Premier League on Friday 11 September (19:45 WAT) to face Trefelin. Trefelin are 15th with 6 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Penybont sit 3rd on 36 points (in the top four). A gap of 30 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Trefelin's last 5: DLDLL Most recently they drew with Holywell 1–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Penybont's last 5: WDDWW Most recently they beat Colwyn Bay 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Penybont arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.6 for Trefelin and 2.1 for Penybont. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Trefelin 8%, draw 21%, Penybont 71%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.95.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Penybont to win – a 71% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Trefelin 0–2 Penybont. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Trefelin8%fair 11.87 · @6.50
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @4.80
Penybont71%fair 1.41 · @1.36
2.64Expected goals
0.59Trefelin xG
2.05Penybont xG
52%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–215%
0–115%
0–310%
1–29%
1–19%
0–07%
From our goals model: Trefelin 0.6 – 2.1 Penybont expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penybont to win✓
71%
1.41
1.36
Double chance
Penybont or draw✓
92%
1.09
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
Penybont ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penybont / FT Penybont✗
47%
2.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
15%
6.66
–
Form
Trefelin – last 6
DLDLLL
4 Sep
@ Holywell
1–1
D
31 Aug
@ Haverfordwest County AFC
1–2
L
28 Aug
vs Ammanford AFC
1–1
D
21 Aug
vs Caernarfon Town
0–2
L
14 Aug
@ GAP Connah S Quay FC
0–6
L
7 Aug
vs Llandudno
0–4
L
0.5Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Penybont – last 6
WDDWWW
5 Sep
vs Colwyn Bay
1–0
W
31 Aug
@ Cambrian & Clydach
2–2
D
28 Aug
vs Flint Town United
1–1
D
21 Aug
vs Llandudno
2–1
W
14 Aug
@ Haverfordwest County AFC
3–0
W
7 Aug
@ Caernarfon Town
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Trefelin and Penybont.
Our pick is Penybont to win with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Trefelin vs Penybont?
On our numbers Trefelin have a 8% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Penybont 71%.
How many goals will there be in Trefelin vs Penybont?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Trefelin vs Penybont?
Our predicted score is Trefelin 0–2 Penybont, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Trefelin vs Penybont?
Trefelin vs Penybont (Premier League) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Ynys Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
