Primeira Liga · Portugal

Sporting CP

WWWLL

1–0

Moreirense

WWLLD

Sporting CP vs Moreirense prediction & analysis

64%

Footrivo pick

Over 2.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗

6/10Rating

1.44Odds

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 54% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultSporting CP to win ✓74% · @1.17

Double chanceSporting CP or draw ✓88% · @1.02

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.05

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗84% · @1.12

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 8.94

Win chances

Sporting CP74%fair 1.36 · @1.17

Draw14%fair 6.93 · @7.00

Moreirense12%fair 8.31 · @17.00

3.28Expected goals

2.44Sporting CP xG

0.84Moreirense xG

54%Both score

64%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

2–011%

2–19%

1–09%

3–09%

1–18%

3–18%

From our goals model: Sporting CP 2.4 – 0.8 Moreirense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Sporting CP are clear favourites at home with a 74% chance of winning, against 12% for Moreirense.

Sporting CP have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.0 per game. Moreirense have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.

We expect around 3.3 goals (2.4 for Sporting CP, 0.8 for Moreirense). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%).

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.44 is close to our fair price of 1.55. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.05 is our value angle (54% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Sporting CP to win ✓	74%	1.36	1.17
Double chance	Sporting CP or draw ✓	88%	1.14	1.02
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	54%	1.84	2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	84%	1.19	1.12
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	64%	1.55	1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	56%	1.78	1.73
Half-time result	Sporting CP ahead at half-time ✗	53%	1.88	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Sporting CP / FT Sporting CP ✗	49%	2.04	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–0 ✗	11%	8.94	–

Form

Sporting CP – last 6

WWWLLW

3 Nov	@ Shakhtar Donetsk	1–0	W
30 Oct	@ Casa Pia	2–0	W
27 Oct	vs Maritimo	2–1	W
25 Oct	vs Academico Viseu	1–2	L
21 Oct	vs Lask Linz	2–3	L
13 Oct	@ Lens	2–0	W

1.7Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Moreirense – last 6

WWLLDW

31 Oct	vs Estrela	2–1	W
25 Oct	@ Estoril	3–1	W
17 Oct	@ AVS	0–1	L
9 Oct	vs GIL Vicente	0–1	L
20 Sep	@ Vitória SC	1–1	D
14 Sep	vs Maritimo	3–1	W

1.5Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

67%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Sporting CP and Moreirense.

Primeira Liga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	11	11	0	0	+22	33
2	Benfica	11	9	1	1	+20	28
3	Sporting CP	11	7	3	1	+13	24
4	Santa Clara	11	6	3	2	+8	21
5	Arouca	11	6	2	3	+5	20
6	Academico Viseu	11	6	2	3	+2	20
7	GIL Vicente	11	5	3	3	+2	18
8	SC Braga	11	5	2	4	+2	17
9	Moreirense	11	4	2	5	-5	14
10	Famalicao	11	3	4	4	+1	13
11	Alverca	11	3	3	5	-1	12
12	Estrela	11	2	4	5	-5	10
13	Nacional	11	3	1	7	-8	10
14	Vitória SC	11	2	3	6	-1	9
15	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-12	8
16	Casa Pia	11	2	2	7	-14	8
17	Rio Ave	11	2	1	8	-15	7
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	-14	2

More Primeira Liga predictions

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Nacional1

Academico Viseu0 322246 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 73%@1.33 ✗ FT

Alverca1

Casa Pia1 612118 1XAlverca or draw 82%@1.20 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sporting CP vs Moreirense?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win Sporting CP vs Moreirense?

On our numbers Sporting CP have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Moreirense 12%.

How many goals will there be in Sporting CP vs Moreirense?

We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

When is Sporting CP vs Moreirense?

Sporting CP vs Moreirense (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time).

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.