Primeira Liga · Portugal · FC Alverca Sports Complex

Alverca

LLDWW

1–1

Casa Pia

LWWLW

Alverca vs Casa Pia prediction & analysis

82%

Footrivo pick

Alverca or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

9/10Rating

1.20Odds

Value bet: Alverca to win @ 1.83 – our chance 61% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultAlverca to win ✗61% · @1.83

Double chanceAlverca or draw ✓82% · @1.20

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.00

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.05

Win chances

Alverca61%fair 1.64 · @1.83

Draw21%fair 4.83 · @3.50

Casa Pia18%fair 5.44 · @4.20

2.49Expected goals

1.71Alverca xG

0.78Casa Pia xG

53%Both score

45%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–014%

2–012%

1–111%

2–19%

0–08%

3–07%

From our goals model: Alverca 1.7 – 0.8 Casa Pia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Alverca are clear favourites at home with a 61% chance of winning, against 18% for Casa Pia.

Alverca have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.7 per game. Casa Pia have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.

We expect around 2.5 goals (1.7 for Alverca, 0.8 for Casa Pia). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 53%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%).

Our pick is Alverca or draw at a 82% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.23. For a bigger price, Alverca to win at 1.83 is our value angle (61% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Alverca to win ✗	61%	1.64	1.83 ▲
Double chance	Alverca or draw ✓	82%	1.23	1.20
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	53%	1.89	2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	70%	1.43	1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	55%	1.80	1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	76%	1.31	1.22
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	43%	2.34	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Alverca / FT Alverca ✗	37%	2.72	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	14%	7.05	–

Form

Alverca – last 6

LLDWWW

2 Nov	@ Benfica	0–1	L
24 Oct	vs Arouca	0–1	L
18 Oct	@ Tondela	0–0	D
12 Oct	@ Famalicao	4–1	W
19 Sep	vs Rio Ave	1–0	W
12 Sep	@ Nacional	3–1	W

1.3Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

33%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Casa Pia – last 6

LWWLWL

30 Oct	vs Sporting CP	0–2	L
24 Oct	@ Estrela	2–0	W
18 Oct	@ Alpendorada	1–0	W
10 Oct	vs Santa Clara	0–1	L
20 Sep	@ Estoril	2–1	W
12 Sep	vs FC Porto	1–4	L

1.0Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

33%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Alverca and Casa Pia.

Primeira Liga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	11	11	0	0	+22	33
2	Benfica	11	9	1	1	+20	28
3	Sporting CP	11	7	3	1	+13	24
4	Santa Clara	11	6	3	2	+8	21
5	Arouca	11	6	2	3	+5	20
6	Academico Viseu	11	6	2	3	+2	20
7	GIL Vicente	11	5	3	3	+2	18
8	SC Braga	11	5	2	4	+2	17
9	Moreirense	11	4	2	5	-5	14
10	Famalicao	11	3	4	4	+1	13
11	Alverca	11	3	3	5	-1	12
12	Estrela	11	2	4	5	-5	10
13	Nacional	11	3	1	7	-8	10
14	Vitória SC	11	2	3	6	-1	9
15	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-12	8
16	Casa Pia	11	2	2	7	-14	8
17	Rio Ave	11	2	1	8	-15	7
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	-14	2

More Primeira Liga predictions

League hub →

Nacional1

Academico Viseu0 322246 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 73%@1.33 ✗ FT

Sporting CP1

Moreirense0 741412 O2.5Over 2.5 goals 64%@1.44 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Alverca vs Casa Pia?

Our pick is Alverca or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Alverca vs Casa Pia?

On our numbers Alverca have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Casa Pia 18%.

How many goals will there be in Alverca vs Casa Pia?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.

When is Alverca vs Casa Pia?

Alverca vs Casa Pia (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at FC Alverca Sports Complex.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.