Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 55% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSporting CP to win ✓68% · @1.29
Double chanceSporting CP or draw ✓86% · @1.07
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✓12% · fair 8.69
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP preview and prediction
The match
Sporting CP travel to face Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga on Friday 30 October (21:15 WAT). Casa Pia are 16th with 8 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Sporting CP sit 3rd on 24 points (in the top four). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Casa Pia's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat Estrela 2–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sporting CP's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Maritimo 2–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 0.8 for Casa Pia and 2.2 for Sporting CP. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Casa Pia 14%, draw 18%, Sporting CP 68%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – 55% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Sporting CP to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.29. Predicted score: Casa Pia 0–2 Sporting CP. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Casa Pia14%fair 6.93 · @9.00
Draw18%fair 5.70 · @5.00
Sporting CP68%fair 1.47 · @1.29
3.00Expected goals
0.85Casa Pia xG
2.15Sporting CP xG
55%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–212%
0–111%
1–210%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Casa Pia 0.8 – 2.2 Sporting CP expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sporting CP to win✓
68%
1.47
1.29
Double chance
Sporting CP or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.80
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Sporting CP ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sporting CP / FT Sporting CP✓
44%
2.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✓
12%
8.69
–
Form
Casa Pia – last 6
WWLWLD
24 Oct
@ Estrela
2–0
W
18 Oct
@ Alpendorada
1–0
W
10 Oct
vs Santa Clara
0–1
L
20 Sep
@ Estoril
2–1
W
12 Sep
vs FC Porto
1–4
L
6 Sep
@ Vitória SC
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Sporting CP – last 6
WLLWWD
27 Oct
vs Maritimo
2–1
W
25 Oct
vs Academico Viseu
1–2
L
21 Oct
vs Lask Linz
2–3
L
13 Oct
@ Lens
2–0
W
9 Oct
@ SC Braga
3–1
W
19 Sep
vs Arouca
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Casa Pia and Sporting CP.
What is the prediction for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
Our pick is Sporting CP to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
On our numbers Casa Pia have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Sporting CP 68%.
How many goals will there be in Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
Our predicted score is Casa Pia 0–2 Sporting CP, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Friday 30 October 2026 at 21:15 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
