Good pick · fair odds 1.72 · bookmaker 2.00 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
2.00Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultBenfica to win ✓73% · @1.17
Double chanceBenfica or draw ✓87% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.30
Benfica vs Alverca preview and prediction
The match
Alverca travel to face Benfica in the Primeira Liga on Monday 2 November (21:15 WAT). Benfica are 2nd with 28 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Alverca sit 11th on 12 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Benfica's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat GIL Vicente 4–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game.
Alverca's last 5: LDWWW Most recently they lost to Arouca 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Benfica arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.5 for Benfica and 0.9 for Alverca. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Benfica 73%, draw 14%, Alverca 13%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 2.00.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 58% chance at odds of 2.00, above our fair price of 1.72, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Benfica 2–1 Alverca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Benfica73%fair 1.37 · @1.17
Draw14%fair 6.97 · @7.00
Alverca13%fair 7.91 · @13.00
3.33Expected goals
2.45Benfica xG
0.88Alverca xG
58%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
2–19%
3–09%
1–09%
3–18%
1–18%
From our goals model: Benfica 2.5 – 0.9 Alverca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Benfica to win✓
73%
1.37
1.17
Double chance
Benfica or draw✓
87%
1.14
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
–
Half-time result
Benfica ahead at half-time✗
53%
1.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Benfica / FT Benfica✗
48%
2.06
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.30
–
Form
Benfica – last 6
WWWWWL
29 Oct
vs GIL Vicente
4–1
W
26 Oct
@ Santa Clara
2–1
W
22 Oct
@ Omonia Nicosia
4–1
W
15 Oct
vs Celtic
4–1
W
11 Oct
vs Vitória SC
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ FC Porto
1–3
L
2.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Alverca – last 6
LDWWWL
24 Oct
vs Arouca
0–1
L
18 Oct
@ Tondela
0–0
D
12 Oct
@ Famalicao
4–1
W
19 Sep
vs Rio Ave
1–0
W
12 Sep
@ Nacional
3–1
W
5 Sep
vs SC Braga
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Benfica and Alverca.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Benfica vs Alverca?
On our numbers Benfica have a 73% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Alverca 13%.
How many goals will there be in Benfica vs Alverca?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Benfica vs Alverca?
Our predicted score is Benfica 2–1 Alverca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Benfica vs Alverca?
Benfica vs Alverca (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 2 November 2026 at 21:15 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
