Primeira Liga · PortugalArouca vs Nacional prediction & analysis
Arouca or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Arouca 1.8 – 0.8 Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Arouca hold the edge on home soil with a 59% chance of winning, against 16% for Nacional.
Arouca have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.2 per game. Nacional have 3 points from their last 6 (1W 0D 5L), averaging 0.7 scored and 2.2 conceded. Arouca come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.8 for Arouca, 0.8 for Nacional). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 56%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Arouca have won 1, Nacional have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Arouca or draw at a 84% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is better than our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Arouca to win ✓ | 59% | 1.69 | 1.75 |
| Double chance | Arouca or draw ✓ | 84% | 1.20 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 56% | 1.80 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 73% | 1.36 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.94 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.36 | – |
| Half-time result | Arouca ahead at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.35 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Arouca / FT Arouca ✗ | 37% | 2.68 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 13% | 7.65 | – |
Form
Arouca – last 6
| 24 Oct | @ Alverca | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | @ CF Os Belenenses | 3–3 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Estrela | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Sporting CP | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Santa Clara | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Sep | @ Estoril | 0–0 | D |
Nacional – last 6
| 25 Oct | vs SC Braga | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | @ Sanjoanense | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | @ Rio Ave | 2–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Famalicao | 0–4 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Alverca | 1–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | @ Sporting CP | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 21 Feb 2026 | Arouca v Nacional | 3–0 |
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 11 | +22 | 33 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 11 | +20 | 28 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 11 | +13 | 24 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 11 | +8 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 11 | +2 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 11 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 |  Famalicao | 11 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 |  Nacional | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 14 |  Vitória SC | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 |  Maritimo | 10 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 11 | -14 | 8 |
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 11 | -15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | -14 | 2 |
More Primeira Liga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Arouca vs Nacional?
Our pick is Arouca or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Arouca vs Nacional?
On our numbers Arouca have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Nacional 16%.
How many goals will there be in Arouca vs Nacional?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is Arouca vs Nacional?
Arouca vs Nacional (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.