Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Famalicao to win @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFamalicao to win ✗58% · @1.85
Double chanceFamalicao or draw ✗84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.49
Famalicao vs Alverca preview and prediction
The match
Famalicao host Alverca in the Primeira Liga on Monday 12 October, with kick-off at 20:15 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal 22 de Junho. Famalicao are 10th with 13 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Alverca sit 11th on 12 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Famalicao's last 5: WDDDL Most recently they beat Nacional 4–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Alverca's last 5: WWLDL Most recently they beat Rio Ave 1–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.7 for Famalicao and 0.8 for Alverca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 51%.
Value angle: Famalicao to win at 1.85 – 58% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Famalicao or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Famalicao 1–0 Alverca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Famalicao58%fair 1.72 · @1.85
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.40
Alverca16%fair 6.17 · @4.00
2.57Expected goals
1.75Famalicao xG
0.82Alverca xG
51%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Famalicao 1.7 – 0.8 Alverca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Famalicao to win✗
58%
1.72
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Famalicao or draw✗
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Famalicao ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Famalicao / FT Famalicao✗
37%
2.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.49
–
Form
Famalicao – last 6
WDDDLL
19 Sep
@ Nacional
4–0
W
13 Sep
vs Sporting CP
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Estrela
2–2
D
30 Aug
vs GIL Vicente
0–0
D
23 Aug
@ Santa Clara
0–1
L
16 Aug
vs Maritimo
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Alverca – last 6
WWLDLD
19 Sep
vs Rio Ave
1–0
W
12 Sep
@ Nacional
3–1
W
5 Sep
vs SC Braga
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs Santa Clara
1–1
D
22 Aug
@ Sporting CP
1–3
L
15 Aug
vs Estrela
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Famalicao and Alverca.
Our pick is Famalicao or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Famalicao vs Alverca?
On our numbers Famalicao have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Alverca 16%.
How many goals will there be in Famalicao vs Alverca?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Famalicao vs Alverca?
Our predicted score is Famalicao 1–0 Alverca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Famalicao vs Alverca?
Famalicao vs Alverca (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal 22 de Junho.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
