Primeira Liga · PortugalRio Ave vs Estrela prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Rio Ave 1.6 – 1.7 Estrela expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Rio Ave and Estrela on our numbers – 35% for the home side, 40% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Rio Ave have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (2W 0D 4L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.0 per game. Estrela have 12 points from their last 6 (3W 3D 0L), averaging 2.5 scored and 1.8 conceded. Estrela come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.3 goals (1.6 for Rio Ave, 1.7 for Estrela). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, Rio Ave have won 1, Estrela have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 61% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.70 is better than our fair price of 1.64, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Estrela to win ✗ | 40% | 2.48 | 2.60 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 61% | 1.64 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 64% | 1.56 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 58% | 1.72 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 37% | 2.67 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Estrela / FT Estrela ✗ | 25% | 4.06 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 11.66 | – |
Form
Rio Ave – last 6
| 6 Sep | @ Santa Clara | 0–4 | L |
| 28 Aug | vs Sporting CP | 0–4 | L |
| 22 Aug | @ Estoril | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | vs FC Porto | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | @ GIL Vicente | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Aug | vs Tondela | 3–1 | W |
Estrela – last 6
| 10 Sep | vs SC Braga | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Famalicao | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | @ Nacional | 3–2 | W |
| 15 Aug | @ Alverca | 2–2 | D |
| 8 Aug | vs Sporting CP | 2–2 | D |
| 1 Aug | vs Al-Nassr | 4–2 | W |
Head to head
| 15 Mar 2026 | Rio Ave v Estrela | 2–1 |
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 11 | +22 | 33 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 11 | +20 | 28 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 11 | +13 | 24 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 11 | +8 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 11 | +2 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 11 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 |  Famalicao | 11 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 |  Nacional | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 14 |  Vitória SC | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 |  Maritimo | 10 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 11 | -14 | 8 |
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 11 | -15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | -14 | 2 |
More Primeira Liga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Rio Ave vs Estrela?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Rio Ave vs Estrela?
On our numbers Rio Ave have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Estrela 40%.
How many goals will there be in Rio Ave vs Estrela?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
When is Rio Ave vs Estrela?
Rio Ave vs Estrela (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 14 September 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.