Good pick · fair odds 1.67 · bookmaker 1.65 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.65Odds
2
Value bet: Arouca to win @ 2.90 – our chance 40% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultArouca to win ✗40% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.76
Estoril vs Arouca preview and prediction
The match
Arouca travel to Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota in the Primeira Liga on Monday 7 September (20:15 WAT) to face Estoril. Estoril are 18th with 2 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Arouca sit 5th on 20 points (in the top half). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Estoril's last 5: LLLDD Most recently they lost to Benfica 1–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Arouca's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Maritimo 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Arouca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 6 April 2026, finished Arouca 3–2 Estoril.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Estoril and 1.2 for Arouca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Estoril 36%, draw 24%, Arouca 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Arouca to win at 2.90 – 40% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 60% chance at odds of 1.65. Predicted score: Estoril 1–1 Arouca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Estoril36%fair 2.79 · @2.30
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.25
Arouca40%fair 2.49 · @2.90
2.38Expected goals
1.15Estoril xG
1.23Arouca xG
60%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–011%
0–09%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Estoril 1.1 – 1.2 Arouca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Estoril vs Arouca?
On our numbers Estoril have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Arouca 40%.
How many goals will there be in Estoril vs Arouca?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estoril vs Arouca?
Our predicted score is Estoril 1–1 Arouca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Estoril vs Arouca?
Estoril vs Arouca (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 7 September 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
